By offering amnesty to those convicted of the 2022/2023 coup plot, he jumped behind the lines of . That’s where the votes capable of making a third way viable are. The coming months will tell whether this path exists. Rightly so, the current governor of Goiás said that “you only feed a political project of polarization when you benefit from it”.
With 88% approval in his state and soft-spoken, Caiado is a hope for those who don’t want to or a Bolsonaro in the Planalto Palace. According to the polls, he skates with single digits. There are seven months left until the election and there is nothing stopping him from trying to reach the second round. After all, at your side is the clairvoyant.
Caiado criticizes the PT, but his target is Flávio Bolsonaro. He offers a Democratic background, a manager with conservative activism and more than 80% approval.
If Caiado is unable to put the third way in place, this will demonstrate that, for better or worse, it does not exist. Polarization would be embedded in Brazilian society, just as Trumpism is embedded in American society.
Any mechanical prediction made in April for an election scheduled for October is a futile exercise.
Caiado was a candidate for president in 1989 carrying the banner of agribusiness, when the word barely existed. There were 21 other candidates and he received a meager 488 thousand votes. That year, everything indicated that the dispute would be between Leonel Brizola and Leonel Brizola. In August, Lula had 5% in the polls. In November, it was Lula who reached the second round against Collor, who would defeat him in the next vote.
At 76 years old, with half a century of public life, Caiado seems like a collage of politicians from that period. When he talks about public safety, it resonates. It’s about polarization, echoes Tancredo Neves. As a manager, he echoes this (without the smile on his face and the optimism in his veins). In defending the amnesty, Caiado repeated JK’s decision by sponsoring the amnesty of the rebel soldiers from Jacareacanga and Aragarças. The parallel shows that JK pacified his government, but did not pacify the insurgents, who resurfaced in 1964.
With a right wing based on Bolsonaro’s style of confrontation and irrationalism, Flávio Bolsonaro copies his father. (The sad joke proves this suspicion.) Only time will tell the consistency of this connection.
One thing is certain: with Caiado’s entry into the dispute, the bad taste of monotony lost. Lula x Bolsonaro father or son is an old dispute.
On the same Monday that Caiado announced his candidacy, PT deputy Kiko Celeguim proposed that Gilberto Kassab enter as a candidate for vice-president.
It seemed like an eccentricity, but it showed that PT has a leg up on Kassab’s ability to articulate, who, in turn, has a leg up on PT. Celeguim was challenged, but explained: “The [de Kassab] is the key party to winning the election”.
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