On March 19th and 20th, I participated as one of the guest speakers at the 1st Symposium of the Aurélia Castiglioni Study Group on Population and Development at the Federal Institute of Espírito Santo (Ifes). The honored teacher, Aurélia, was present and it was beautiful to see the affection and admiration from students and colleagues. This recognition is especially significant in an environment where we are all aware of the difficulties of academic life.
On the 20th, I participated in the session “Family dynamics, gender and vulnerabilities”, with professor Érika Leal, to discuss work presented by Ifes students. The works covered diverse and interesting topics, but they had in common the obstacle of not being able to be fully developed, as they depended on microdata from . And it’s not just them who are waiting for this data — researchers, students, teachers and managers too.
The Census should have been carried out in 2020, but did not take place due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Thus, the last Census available in full is from 2010. It has been 16 years, and Brazil has changed a lot in that period. This shows a lack of interest in releasing data for research.
We are in 2026, and we should already be focusing on organizing the 2030 Census, but the 2022 Census is still open. This situation creates a series of problems. We allocate public resources to carry out these surveys, and failure to disclose their results could result in waste. Furthermore, it is this data that allows us to draw an updated portrait of the country and supports the formulation of public policies. The Census is the only one with representation at the municipal level, benefiting both small and large cities.
The release of Census microdata was scheduled for November 2025, but did not occur. I spoke with the demographer and member of the 2022 Census advisory committee, Suzana Cavenaghi, who informed me that the reason given by the quality committee for non-disclosure was the concern about the possibility of identifying individuals in very small municipalities.
However, no study or concrete proposal was presented to mitigate this risk. Consider, for example, a very small municipality where there is only one doctor: as his occupation is disclosed, it would be possible to identify him in the data and, thus, know his income. To avoid this type of identification, it is possible to apply specific statistical treatments to data from these municipalities. An alternative, therefore, would be to immediately release the microdata from the 2022 Census, with the exception of very small municipalities, which could be subject to this treatment.
This type of problem, however, is not new. How was it resolved in these cases? Furthermore, the 2022 Census guidelines began to be developed in 2019, and this type of issue should have been anticipated, and not just faced now. The was sanctioned in 2018, so this concern should also have been incorporated since then.
My concern goes beyond the 2022 Census. Another survey, the National Demographic and Health Survey (PNDS), carried out in 2023/2024, does not yet have a finalized database, according to Suzana, due to a lack of staff.
This survey brings together information on demographics, reproductive health and child nutrition, as well as questions about violence against women. This is a set of recent and essential information to portray this epidemic that is ravaging the country and support the formulation of public policies.
The IBGE, despite its importance, seems to be being left aside. It should, however, be strengthened. The institution deserves it and Brazil needs its research.
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