The president lost an advantage in second round scenarios and appears technically tied with the senator, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday, 11. For the first time, the opponent numerically surpasses the PT member.
In a possible second round dispute, Flávio would have 46% of voting intentions, compared to 45% for Lula. The difference, however, is within the margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, which constitutes a technical tie. In March, Lula scored 46% in a possible second round while Flávio had 43%, tied within the margin of error of two percentage points.
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In scenarios against other possible candidates, Lula appears ahead, also in a technical tie. Against the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the president recorded 45%, against 42% for his opponent. Compared to the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), Lula also has 45%, while Zema has 42%.
The survey interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 cities between the 7th and 9th of this month. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-03770/2026.
In the scenario of spontaneous voting intentions for the first round, Lula appears with 26% of mentions, according to the survey. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is mentioned by 16%. Also mentioned were former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is serving a sentence of 27 years and three months in prison for leading an attempted coup d’état, and governor Ronaldo Caiado, both with 2% of citations.
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In this type of question, in which the interviewee does not receive a preliminary list of candidates, 42% said they did not know who to vote for. Another 7% said they voted blank, null or for no candidate, while 5% gave other answers.
In the stimulated scenario, when the names of the candidates are presented to the interviewee, the president appears with 39% of voting intentions, followed by senator Flávio with 35%. Next, Caiado has 5%, and Zema has 4%. Renan Santos (Missão) appears with 2%, while Aldo Rebelo (DC) and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) register 1% each.
Blank, null or no candidate votes amount to 10%, while a portion of those interviewed said they did not know who to vote for.
