The character of the international conference on the safety of navigation in, which is being organized today following a French initiative, is expected to be mostly symbolic. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are meeting today in Paris, while around thirty other participants from Europe, the Middle East, Asia and even Latin America will participate via video conference, without the US present.
“This is a coalition of third countries that did not participate in the war and do not wish to be involved on the side of the US and Israel, nor certainly on the side of Iran,” Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Aida told Le Monde newspaper, mentioning, in addition to Western countries, the Philippines, Singapore and Australia as possible participants. “We share a common interest in the opening of sea lanes, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” he explains, emphasizing that the American initiative deviates from the legal framework.
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According to the French newspaper, the “coalition” in question is strongly reminiscent of the “alliance of the willing”, whose reins were taken over by Paris and London in 2025, attempting to influence the peace negotiations between the US, Russia and Ukraine. “The characteristics of this temporary alliance to decongest the Straits of Hormuz remain, for now, as uncertain as those aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, as no action will be taken until security is restored in this maritime zone,” notes the French newspaper.
According to French analysts, the main utility of this coalition is rather to send a “strategic message”, in particular through the promise of a military escort to merchant ships, in order to reassure insurance companies, which today demand – almost prohibitively – high insurance premiums for crossing the Straits.
French analysts also note that the coalition could contribute to demining if needed, pointing out that countries such as Denmark, Sweden and Norway have advanced submarine capabilities, significantly superior to those of the US, and easy to mobilize to defuse such explosives.
“There is a risk of creating a nice theoretical scheme, which, however, will not be implemented, as the conditions do not allow it,” Elie Tenebom, director of the Center for Security Studies of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), points out to the newspaper, while Mark Montgomery, a retired rear admiral and researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, based in Washington, notes that if the war end, “merchant ships will need nobody’s help.”
“The Europeans are reluctant to take risks: no country will put ships in the Straits unless it is certain that the Iranians will not attack. This coalition is unrealistic,” added Muhtaba Rahman, an analyst at the Eurasia Group think tank, to Le Monde newspaper. Countries that might participate will be even less willing to act, as, according to him, the situation in the region will remain unstable in the long term.
Even in the event of a peace deal, Iran will seek to maintain control of the Straits and may delay the implementation of its commitments, Rahman says. A structural premium will be built into energy prices, and a new system of governance may emerge, involving the imposition of fees by the Iranian regime,” he predicts.
