Director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center warns that, even after the eventual end of the conflict in the Middle East, the energy market will continue to be volatile under a scenario of heightened geopolitical tension
The global fuel market is unlikely to quickly return to normal even with a ceasefire in the Middle East. The assessment is from the director of the (Brazilian Infrastructure Center), columnist in Poder360. According to him, it is still hasty to talk about a return to the pre-war scenario, but he says that the global market has already entered a “new normality”, comparable to the structural impacts of the post-Covid era, marked by permanent volatility.
Although some sector analysts interpret the scenario as positive in the medium term, given that the global flow of fuel continues and that it could take 1 to 2 months for normalization, Pires reinforces that the “logistical hangover” and the new dynamics of oil geopolitics are now the current reality.
According to the director, the closure of the which had been a constant threat in past conflicts, but which has come to fruition this time, is the fundamental milestone of this new dynamic. The site is a waterway through which around 20% of global oil and gas supplies pass. The passage has been practically blocked since the United States and Israel began their offensive against Iran on February 28.
Iran had reopened the passage on Friday (April 17, 2026), but this Saturday (April 18) the Persian country once again exercised strict control over the traffic of commercial ships there. The announcement was made by Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for the Central Headquarters of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The military stated that the decision was taken after the United States did not ease its naval blockade of Iran, violating an agreement between the 2 countries.
Faced with the decision, US President Donald Trump (Republican Party) stated that Iran is acting in a “daring” and that the country will not allow itself to be carried away by “blackmail”.
Pires told Poder360 that the effect of closing the strait already ushers in a new reality. Even with a possible ceasefire, it will still be necessary to observe the impact on maritime insurance costs. The area will continue to be a territory of high tension and instability, where dependence on oil and gas supplies from that region becomes a growing strategic risk for the international market.
“With the ceasefire, we will see, for example, what the value of insurance will be for ships that will pass through there. So you will always have a huge amount of instability”highlights Pires.
According to the director, with this new dynamic in the strait, global companies must begin a race to reduce dependence on suppliers from the Middle East, such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This was already signaled by the United States’ record-breaking crude oil exports during the war. US government data
In this case, refineries in Europe and Asia began competing for shipments from the United States to compensate for the loss of supply from the conflicted region.
Pires considers that this is a long-term transition, since the exploration of new sources, especially in the natural gas sector, requires high capital contributions and maturation time for liquefaction and regasification plants. In this new geopolitical design, the expert identifies that countries with greater political stability or strategic alignment, such as Venezuela, have the potential to attract investments.
Regarding Brazil’s role, the CBIE director assesses that the country could also benefit, as long as there is internal speed. He advocates that the government accelerate licensing for the Equatorial Margin, which, although it faces current environmental barriers, makes up the future energy security scenario for the country in his assessment.
“I say again, countries like Brazil, like Venezuela, will benefit, obviously. It depends on the policy, the legal regulatory risk that these countries will present”he states.
As for price projections, the outlook for the short term is cautious. Pires estimates that a barrel of oil is unlikely to fall below US$80 this year, as the final value will directly depend on the extent of structural damage in the region. On Friday, a barrel of oil was quoted at US$90.3.
The international oil and derivatives market faces a direct shock in logistics costs. In March, the average price of diesel oil reached R$7.26 per liter, according to data from the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels).
This level, driven by the escalation of conflicts between the United States and Iran, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised the international price of oil.
