With a minimum of R$4.9711 and a maximum of R$4.9888, the dollar in cash ended the day down 0.18%
The dollar maintained its behavior close to stability throughout this Monday (20) ending the session with a slight decline, at R$ 4.9742, lowest closing price in two years. The weaker business volume environment due to the holiday amendment in Brazil contributed to the reduced range of operations this Monday.
Abroad, the resumption of tensions in the Middle East, with Trump reiterating the American naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz in the afternoon reinforced the global market’s caution. The dynamic was yet another seal for the increase of more than 5% in a barrel of oil, quoted at US$95, following the return of Iran’s restrictions on Hormuz at the weekend. However, the spike in prices favors the terms of trade of countries that export the commodity, such as Brazil.
“The stress related to Hormuz has given the real little volatility compared to other moments. It means that the real is very resilient to all these events and reinforces the positive trend”, assesses the head of the foreign exchange and international desk at Mirae Asset, Jonathan Joo Lee. According to him, the movement favors the shares of oil companies on the Brazilian stock exchange, such as Petrobras and Prio.
Com minimum of R$4.9711 and maximum of R$4.9888, the dollar in cash ended the day down 0.18%at R$4.9742, the lowest closing value since March 25, 2024, when the currency closed at R$4.9734. The currency accumulated a devaluation of 3.95% in the month and 9.38% in the year in relation to the real. At 5:22 pm, the future dollar fell 0.11%, quoted at R$4.9845.
Furthermore, the expectation of a still strong interest rate differential, with the Selic falling cycle smaller than expected, contributes to the real benefiting against the dollar, according to the investment director at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, Marco Mecchi.
The Focus bulletin released earlier today indicated a worsening of the de-anchoring of inflation expectations. The median for the 2026 Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose from 4.71% to 4.80%, above the inflation target ceiling. Expectations for 2027 also increased, to 3.99%, while those for 2028 and 2029 remained at 3.60% and 3.50%, in that order.
“Expectations for 2026 rose quickly and those for 2027 and 2028 are already closer to 4% than 3%. The oil shock and the unanchoring of expectations are points that greatly bother the Central Bank”, notes Mecchi.
Even though the supply shock is a nuisance for inflation, on the one hand, the real has demonstrated resilience and appreciation against the global dollar (DXY) in the last 45 days, in the assessment of BGC Liquidez. The expectation is that, in the short term, the exchange rate will remain stable between R$4.97 and R$4.98, with fluctuation bands ranging from R$4.90 to R$5.05.
