Until the day before yesterday, , co-president of the far-right (AfD), had not yet changed her profile photo on the X platform. It shows her shaking his hand. It was February 12, two months before the parliamentary elections in Hungary, when Weidel rushed in, as did the US vice president a few weeks later. Jay Dee Vanceto support him in his election campaign. He characterized Orban “large pattern”praised the country as “bulwark against illegal immigration” and “EU anti-paternalism model” and declared that in case the AfD joins a coalition government, it will follow the “path” of Hungary. Defeat Orban found her rather prepared but definitely determined to continue the fight “against illegal immigration and Brussels patronage”.
In Berlin, the defeat of Hungary’s prime minister for 16 consecutive years caused deep relief. The chancellor was among the first leaders to congratulate the winner by phone Peter Magyar. “Yesterday was a good day” Mertz said last Monday, the day after the Hungarian elections. “Right-wing populism suffered a heavy defeat in Hungary, and this is not only about the country itself. A very clear message is being sent from Hungary against right-wing populism to the whole world.” he pointed out, looking at the AfD.
How difficult the position of the German government is because of far-right populism is reflected in the latest opinion polls. If a pan-German election were held today, the AfD would come in first with 27%, four points ahead of Merz’s Christian Democratic Party. Polls in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where local elections will be held on September 6, are bleaker: the AfD is on 38% with an upward trend. And if three parties fail to enter the local parliament, there is a strong possibility that the AfD will govern alone and Saxony-Anhalt will become the first German state with an AfD government just 16 years after the party was founded. A bad omen for the next parliamentary elections in 2029.
Special connection between Berlin and Budapest
Hungary has a historical specificity for Berlin. It was one of the first countries from the former Eastern bloc to join NATO and, earlier, played an important role shortly before the Wall came down. “In August 1989 thousands of citizens of the then East Germany crossed into West Germany through the opening near the Hungarian city of Sopron” the deputy recalled while speaking to “Vima”. Roderich Kiesewetter, executive of the Christian Democrats. “The opening of the border has greatly strengthened the friendship between the two countries. That is why I believe that with a change of government and as long as the economy is doing well and Hungary remains stable, the developments will probably be positive both in the EU and in NATO. The question, of course, is how the Americans will deal with such political trends in the next elections in Poland, France, and Germany. US support for AfD is evident”.
The German MP, whom we met at an event of the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in Berlin, reminds us of the privileged relations that the Trump administration is building with ethno-populist parties in Europe, and especially with the AfD, to divide the EU where it hurts, in the Ukrainian, vital for Berlin. “The next Summit in June, with Magyar only a few weeks in power, could be an opportunity to finally release the 90 billion euros for Ukraine, although in the election campaign he kept a cautious stance” Kiesewetter told us. “I think he focused on domestic issues to avoid confrontation”.
Weber as a mentor
Magyar is expected to visit Brussels soon, much earlier than Berlin. According to the German press, his most important adviser in the EU is the Bavarian, president of the European People’s Party. It was he who paved the way for him to Brussels after the founding of his party, Tisza, in 2024 and helped him to be recognized as a force to be reckoned with in the family of European Christian Democratic parties. Weber is his bridge to the president of the European Commission and Chancellor Mertz. “The fact that Orbán, who in recent years really held Europe “hostage” and was a symbol of Europe’s populists, was removed from power with such a clear result is a historic moment for Europe” Weber told ZDF, Germany’s second television channel. “We stopped the populists and that’s why it’s a good day for Europe.”
To what extent Orban’s defeat also halts the march of German populists to power remains to be seen next September. In Saxony-Anhalt, however, the AfD is feverishly preparing. Last weekend he adopted the government’s so-called Vision 2026. With a bit of luck, this could “vision” to become a reality by forming even a self-reliant government. Almost a year after Germany’s parliamentary elections, the tussle between the two disparate government partners in Berlin, Chancellor Merz’s big-mouthed promises of industry-friendly reforms and measures that have been delayed, and popular anger over exploding energy prices are being harnessed by the AfD to drive democratic voters into its fold. It may turn out that Orbán may have been defeated, but not the monster of ethno-populism in Europe.
