The new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, released this Tuesday (28), reinforces the competitive dispute scenario for 2026, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading in the first round, but Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) consistent advancement and balance in the second round scenarios.
In the main first round scenario, Lula appears with 46.6% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 39.7%. The difference of around seven points keeps the president ahead, but indicates a reduction in the gap observed in previous moments. The rest of the candidates appear distant, with Renan Santos (5.3%), Ronaldo Caiado (3.3%) and Romeu Zema (3.1%), which reinforces the concentration of the dispute between two poles.
The historical series of the research itself shows the most relevant movement: Flávio has grown continuously since the end of 2025, moving from around 20% to approaching 40%. Lula, on the other hand, oscillates in a narrower range, without being able to increase his advantage consistently.
Second round
In second round scenarios, the dispute becomes even tighter. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula appears with 47.5%, while his opponent records 47.8%, configuring a technical tie with a slight numerical advantage for the PL candidate.
In other scenarios, Lula maintains an advantage, but always within reduced margins, such as against Jair Bolsonaro (48% to 46.8%) and Romeu Zema (47.4% to 46.5%).
The data converge to the reading that the election is heading towards a scenario of consolidated polarization, with low growth capacity for candidacies outside this axis. Alternative names add few points and do not change the main dynamic of the dispute.
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Another point that reinforces this reading is the behavior of voters over time. The rapprochement between Lula and Flávio in the second round occurs without major abrupt fluctuations, suggesting a gradual process of consolidation of preferences, rather than specific changes motivated by specific events.
The pattern also indicates a growth limit for the president at the current moment. Even leading in the first round, Lula does not expand his margin enough to guarantee comfort in a possible second round, where he faces scenarios of a technical draw.
On the opposition side, Flávio Bolsonaro’s advance occurs in parallel with the maintenance of a competitive electorate, capable of pressuring the dispute until the final stretch. The proximity of the numbers indicates that small variations in the mood of the electorate may be enough to change the result.
The survey interviewed 5,008 people between April 24th and 27th, using a digital questionnaire. The margin of error is one percentage point, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-07992/2026.
