Six months before the election, the dispute for the government of Rio Grande do Sul remains undefined: Juliana Brizola (PDT) has 24% of voting intentions and is technically tied with Luciano Zucco (PL), who has 21%, while 34% of voters are still undecided, shows a Genial/Quaest survey released this Thursday (30).
Check out the 1st round scenario:
- Juliana Brizola (PDT) — 24%
- Luciano Zucco (PL) — 21%
- Gabriel Souza (MDB) — 6%
- Marcelo Maranata (PSDB) — 2%
- Rejane Oliveira (PSTU) — 1%
- Undecided — 34%
- White/Null/Will not vote — 12%
Despite the good evaluation of governor Eduardo Leite (PSD), who is ending his second term and cannot run for a new re-election, his candidate, Gabriel Souza (MDB), has so far been unable to significantly inherit the electoral capital of the PSD.
For Felipe Nunes, researcher at Instituto Genial/Quaest, the election in Rio Grande do Sul remains in an early definition phase, despite the calendar. “The percentage of misinformation about political alliances highlights this. Only 20% say that Juliana is Lula’s candidate, only 27% think that Bolsonaro supports Zucco and 14% that Leite will support Gabriel”, he explains.
The analyst also highlights the high degree of vote volatility: 68% of those interviewed say they can still change their voting option if something happens during the election campaign. The robust uncertainty, added to the high number of undecided people, keeps the scenario open.
Even with the low participation in second round scenarios, in a possible new stage of the dispute, Juliana Brizola would beat both Zucco and Gabriel, with a wider advantage over Leite’s nominee. See the scenarios:
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1st scenario
- Juliana Brizola (PDT) — 35%
- Luciano Zucco (PL) — 27%
- Undecided — 24%
- White/Null/Will not vote — 14%
2nd scenario
- Juliana Brizola (PDT) — 35%
- Gabriel Souza (MDB) — 17%
- Undecided — 29%
- White/Null/Will not vote — 19%
3rd scenario
- Luciano Zucco (PL) — 28%
- Gabriel Souza (MDB) — 20%
- Undecided — 31%
- White/Null/Will not vote — 21%
To reach these results, the Genial/Quaest survey interviewed 1,104 people between April 24th and 28th. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus. The research was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number RS-03000/2026.
