Production sector indicates negative impacts of the proposed change; Secom says the measure can improve employment, income and well-being
The productive sector and economists have presented data that contradicts the federal government in defense of the end of the 6
Entities such as the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism, the National Confederation of Store Managers, the Confederation of Commercial and Business Associations of Brazil and the National Confederation of Industry, as well as economists and professors, state that the effects projected by the government are not supported by the available data.
Insper labor law professor Ricardo Calcini states that the impact of the change would fall mainly on smaller companies. “Only small and medium-sized companies account for approximately 80% of signed portfolios. They are the ones that do not have the structure to absorb this reduction”it says. According to him, smaller businesses may face difficulties in meeting basic obligations, such as paying salaries and taxes.
In the same vein, the president of the CNDL, José César da Costa, declares that there is a risk of negative effects on employment and income. “Entrepreneurs would face an abrupt increase in costs, putting the survival of small businesses at risk”it says. He states that the reorganization of scales is more complex in smaller companies and that the pass-through of costs can put pressure on prices of essential products.
Estimates cited by the entities indicate that the cost of labor could rise up to 12.7% in trade with and up to 17.57% in broader reduction scenarios. In industry, companies with up to 9 employees could see costs increase by up to 13%, above the impact on large companies. The CNI also states that micro and small companies tend to suffer greater pressure with the measure.
ON THE LIMIT
The CACB says that small businesses operate at their limit and do not have the capacity to reorganize schedules without losing productivity. “This requires hiring additional staff or paying overtime at a volume that is incompatible with the structure of these companies”states the entity.
According to the confederation, there is a risk of an increase in informality and the closure of companies in labor-intensive sectors, such as commerce and services.
Another central point of the government’s campaign – that more free time would stimulate consumption – is also questioned. The CNC’s chief economist, Fábio Bentes, states that the main limitation of consumption is income. “There is no point in having more time if the budget is compromised. The tendency is for prices to rise and a possible impact on employment”it says.
Recent data reinforces this assessment. Family debt reached 49.9%, according to the Central Bank, while 80.4% of households have some type of debt, according to the CNC. For experts, this scenario reduces the possibility of a significant increase in consumption simply with more free time.
Labor lawyer Marcos Lemos states that the relationship between shorter working hours and increased consumption is not automatic. “Available time does not automatically convert into spending capacity”it says. According to him, without a real increase in income, the effect tends to be limited and can be neutralized by inflation resulting from increased costs.
STRIKES
The idea of hiring “strikers”, by the Minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic, Guilherme Boulos, is also viewed with reservations. Entities say that the measure would increase costs and require additional labor in a scenario already marked by shortages in some sectors. Additionally, indirect costs such as training and turnover would increase pressure on companies.
The Communication Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic states that there is no consensus on negative effects and argues that labor changes historically face resistance before being consolidated. The government also cites research that indicates popular support for the measure and highlights social benefits, such as improved health and family life.
For representatives of the productive sector, however, the debate needs to consider differences between sectors and company sizes. The predominant assessment is that, without an increase in productivity and a gradual transition, the change could increase costs, put pressure on prices and reduce the capacity to generate formal jobs.
Read the government’s response in full:
“The Brazilian government defends the bill sent and its vision on the topic, aligned with the needs of workers, whose fatigue caused by the 6 x 1 scale turned its end into a national debate.
“The end of the 6
“It is important to point out that there is no consensus regarding possible negative effects of the end of the 6 X 1 scale. What there is is an effort to present these supposed effects as inevitable, in the same way that happened with each labor advance achieved in Brazil.
“At one time, the supposed disastrous effects of the creation of a minimum wage, paid holidays and a thirteenth salary at the end of the year were also highlighted. All of these rights were won by workers, and none of them had a negative impact on the economy.
“It is important to remember, finally, that the end of the 6 X 1 scale, in addition to the beneficial effects on the economy, is a measure with a broader impact, which is necessary even for health reasons. Ending the 6 X 1 means more united families, less mental illness, better health and more freedom for Brazilians.”
