The global cocoa market is going through a period of strong volatility, influenced mainly by climatic factors and supply and demand dynamics. In recent days, futures contracts for the commodity rose more than 7% in New York, reflecting concerns about global production and product availability.
At the same time, the sector begins to enter a . After years of shortages and record prices, global production is showing signs of recovery and should generate a surplus in the 2025/26 harvest. Still, this scenario may not be sustainable for long.
According to market analyses, the global surplus, estimated at around 247 thousand tons, could fall to approximately 149 thousand tons in the following cycle. The main threat is climate: the possibility of intensification of climate change, which tends to affect key regions such as West Africa, responsible for most of the world’s production.
Historically, El Niño reduces global cocoa production, with impacts that vary between regions, including drought risk in Africa and water stress in Brazil.
Despite the recent recovery, the market still operates under uncertainty. Global demand, measured by cocoa grinding, remains weak, although it shows signs of stabilization.
Double signals in Brazil
In Brazil, the effects of this scenario are double. On the one hand, there is room for growth. Up more than 60% in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a recovery after recent losses.
On the other hand, challenges remain in the field. “Agriculture is an open-air industry. You can do everything right and lose because of the climate”, says rural businessman Mário Augusto Nascimento Ribeiro.
In addition to the climate, increased production depends on investment and technical management. According to experts, practices such as fertilization, pruning and soil analysis can significantly increase productivity.
“The big challenge today is to increase production. Brazil still does not produce enough cocoa to supply the domestic market”, explains Igor Mota, agriculture manager.
To understand this scenario in practice, the CNN team followed different stages of the production chain, at the invitation of Nestlé. The report was in São Francisco do Conde, in Bahia, one of the main producing regions in the country, and also in Extrema, in Minas Gerais, where cocoa is transformed into chocolate.
In the field, the focus is on productivity and adaptation to climatic conditions. Cultivation systems that maintain part of the native vegetation seek to balance production and environmental preservation. In the industry, the process involves steps such as roasting, grinding and conching, as well as manual phases in finishing.
With a more competitive market subject to fluctuations, concerns about differentiation are also growing. In addition to price, factors such as origin, production practices and traceability begin to influence purchasing decisions.
In this context, Kopenhagen launched the KOP (Kopenhagen Protected Origin) platform. The tool brings together information about the origin of cocoa, agricultural practices and production stages, accessible to consumers through a digital environment and a seal on the packaging.
The initiative reflects a broader change in the sector: in a market impacted by climate, supply and price, transparency about the production chain becomes part of the strategy and also of the relationship with the consumer.
