Andrej Cukic / EPA
China kept the Iranian economy alive in the first two months of the war, and many analysts credit Beijing as the main driving force behind the April ceasefire. If the full-scale conflict were to reignite, it could even take measures to help Iran militarily.
The President of the USA, Donald Trumpsuspended ““, the North American operation aimed at restore navigation trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a post on social media, a few days after the announcement of the operation, Trump stated that he had made the decision to give negotiators time Americans to reach an agreement with Iran and end the war.
Iranian state media outlets presented the suspension as a North American failure. Iran had warned that it would attack ships that tried to enter the sea lane and subsequently launched missiles and drones against civilian vessels and the United Arab Emirates.
O direction the conflict will take from here remains uncertain, says Tom Harperprofessor at the University of East London, in an article in . But no matter what happens next, China’s role will be decisive.
China kept the Iranian economy alive in the first two months of the war. Before the conflict, China was responsible for up to 90% of exports of oil from Iran, importing more than a million barrels per day.
Iran continued to ship large quantities of oil crude oil to China during the early stages of the war, with reports that at least 11.7 million barrels were shipped between 28 February and 10 March.
Payments for Iranian oil were processed by institutions such as the Banco Kunlun of China and the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. These are alternatives to the Swif global payment systemt, dominated by the United States, and allow the settlement of oil transactions in yuan.
Of has helped Iran circumvent Western sanctionsplacing oil revenues beyond the reach of the US Treasury.
The flow of oil from Iran to China decreased since mid-Aprilwhen the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Still, China maintains the ability to provide Iran with a lifeline in terms of revenue, albeit more limited, in the near future.
On May 2, China’s Ministry of Commerce ordered companies to did not comply with US sanctions imposed on five Chinese refiners linked to the Iranian oil trade.
This allows refiners continue to process Iranian crude oil arriving by train or already outside the lockdown zone. On April 21, approx. 160 million barrels of Iranian crude oil were in transit or in floating storage at sea.
O China’s economic support for Iran is becoming a source of friction between Washington and Beijing, as Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping approaches.
In an interview with Fox News on May 4, US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessant, stated that China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil amounted to the financing of global terrorism.
A China’s influence on the Iranian economy gives it negotiating power over Tehran. And everything indicates that It is in Beijing’s interest for the war to come to an end. Rising prices are beginning to affect the Chinese economy, and contributing to the end of the conflict would also help the Chinese Government in its ambition to assert itself as the responsible global power.
To China already played a relevant diplomatic role in the conflict. Although Pakistan has been one of the main mediators between the United States and Iran, many analysts attribute China to the role of the main driving force behind the April ceasefire.
At the time, Iranian officials said Beijing had asked demonstrate flexibility and that contributed to easing tensions. Since then, China appears to have continued to pressure Iran to negotiate with the United States.
Just hours after Trump announced the suspension of the US effort to guide vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchimet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. It is the first time that Araghchi has traveled to China since the start of the war.
In a statement released after the meeting, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “China considers that must be achieved without delay, a complete cessation of hostilities… and that continuing to negotiate remains essential.”
Also following the meeting, Araghchi declared that Iran will defend its «rights and legitimate interests in negotiations», but that «will accept a fair and comprehensive agreement».
Chinese military support
At the same time, there are signs that China is play on several fronts. A protracted war with US participation in the Middle East also presents advantages for Beijing, mainly because it diverts attention North American region of the Asia-Pacific region.
According to several reports, China will even be consider taking action to come to help Iran militarily should full-scale conflict reignite.
According to US intelligence services, Beijing has considered transfer of air defense systems to Iran, eventually transiting the shipments through other countries to disguise its involvement.
A reported in April that the defense systems in question would be shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles, known by the English acronym Manpads. China responded by stating that “never supplied weapons to any party in the conflict».
A Chinese technical assistance it also increased the effectiveness of the Iranian armed forces in the early stages of the war. Since 2021, Iran has been implementing the Beidoua satellite navigation system of Chinese origin.
As an alternative to the Global Positioning System (GPS), managed by the United States, BeiDou has helped guide Iranian missile attackss in the conflict and allowed for more effective monitoring of US military deployments.
Thus, China has played a fundamental role in the way the conflict has unfolded so far. And, given its position of influence over Iran, it will be a decisive factor in determining whether the war will reach a negotiated end — or whether it will escalate into open conflict again, concludes Harper.
