The war in the Middle East and its economic effects represent the factor with the greatest potential to influence the 2026 Brazilian elections, surpassing in relevance the investigations into the Master case. The assessment was made by Silvio Cascione, director of Eurasia consultancy in Brazil, in an interview with WW this Friday (8).
Cascione assessed that, although the Master case is an important factor in the electoral scenario, it is not the most decisive. “The most important thing today, which has the most capacity to turn this election around, is war,” he stated.
According to Cascione, the conflict and its consequences have the potential to neutralize initiatives adopted by the government to gain popular support, such as the Desenrola program, the discussion on income tax and the proposal to end the 6×1 scale.
Tied electoral scenario
The analyst highlighted that, if the elections were held this weekend, the result would be very disputed. “It’s very tied. Flávio, I think, might win, if the election were tomorrow. The problem for Flávio and the opposition is that the election is not tomorrow,” said Cascione.
He considered that the electoral calendar, with voting only scheduled for October, favors the government. According to Cascione, candidates seeking re-election, both on the right and on the left, usually gain between 4 and 5 percentage points during the electoral period, on average.
The director of Eurasia explained that the government’s advantage lies in its ability to take the election. “You have the pen in your hand, you are taking measures”, he observed, citing initiatives such as Desenrola and the processing of the 6×1 proposal in Congress.
Regarding the Master case, the analyst acknowledged that it could harm the government’s race, but highlighted that it could also represent a problem for the opposition. For Cascione, the element that can most clearly affect either side and take away the government’s advantage is, precisely, .
