The next round of the AtlasIntel survey, scheduled to be released on Tuesday (19), should offer the first national portrait of the political impact of the crisis involving senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and former banker Daniel Vorcaro on the 2026 presidential race.
The survey began to be collected on Wednesday (13), hours after the release of messages and audios showing Flávio demanding payments linked to the financing of the film Dark Horse, a production about former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Unlike previous rounds, the new questionnaire incorporated a specific battery of questions about the episode.
Respondents will be asked whether they were aware of the case, whether they listened to the published audios and whether the information changes their willingness to vote for the senator.
The survey will be carried out until Monday (18) with 5 thousand voters aged 16 and over using the Atlas RDR system, a random digital recruitment method used by the institute.
The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-06939/2026 and cost R$75,000, paid with AtlasIntel’s own resources.
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Understand the case
On Wednesday (13), the Intercept Brazil published exchanges of messages and audio recordings in which Flávio Bolsonaro appears charging Daniel Vorcaro for promised payments for film production.
According to the report, the businessman committed to investing US$24 million — around R$134 million at the time — in the project.
Flávio confirmed contact with Vorcaro, but denied irregularities and stated that he was only looking for private sponsorship for a private film. The senator also began to publicly defend the installation of a CPI at Banco Master after the audios were released.
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The timing of the new survey is considered particularly sensitive because the most recent surveys showed consistent growth for Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential race.
In the round released in April by AtlasIntel, Lula appeared with 46.6% of voting intentions in the main first round scenario, while Flávio registered 39.7%.
The other candidates appeared distant, reinforcing a growing polarization between the president and the name supported by Bolsonarism.
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In the second round scenarios, the dispute already appeared in a technical draw. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula had 47.5%, while the senator appeared numerically ahead with 47.8%.
In addition to questions about the scandal, the survey will also measure government approval, evaluation of Lula’s administration and stimulated first and second round scenarios.
Among the names presented to interviewees are Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, Aldo Rebelo and Augusto Cury.
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