The Ministry of Finance released the Macrofiscal Bulletin and maintained a projection for 2026 GDP growth of 2.3%
Official inflation measured by the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) should close the year at 4.5%, above the center of the target established by the CMN (National Monetary Council), of 3%.
The new estimate from the Ministry of Finance, released this Monday (May 18, 2026), represents an increase compared to the 3.7% projected in the previous two months. The data appears in the Macrofiscal Bulletin prepared by the SPE (Secretariat for Economic Policy). Here’s the (PDF – 573 kB).
The Ministry of Finance maintained the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth estimate for 2026 at 2.3%. The previous percentage, released in the last two months, was also 2.3%.
The data presented by the government differs from the expectations of financial agents. According to the Focus Bulletin, prepared based on market estimates, the average points to an increase in GDP of 1.85% and inflation of 4.92% at the end of 2026.
The government often presents more optimistic scenarios for economic activity than financial institutions.
The revision of inflation indicators is due to the increase in inflation, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, and the expectation of a higher inflation.
The economic team monitors external risks, but reported that it trusts the resilience of the Brazilian labor market to keep activity high.
