El Niño will arrive with 100% certainty and should impact agricultural production not only in Brazil, but throughout the world. The warning was made by Marcello Brito, director of FDC Agroambiental, in an interview with WW this Monday (18). According to him, both seasonal crops and long-term perennial crops will be affected by the climate phenomenon.
“I’ve been following this closely, the percentages have been growing month after month. In February we talked about El Niño and the possibilities were low, but they’re rising. [probabilidade de] arrival of El Niño is 100%, Super El Niño is increasing more and more”, highlighted Brito.
This Tuesday morning (19), in order to strengthen prevention actions, especially in case of rain and flooding, due to the phenomenon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a United States government agency that observes climate conditions, indicates a probability of over 80% of El Niño occurring in July. The current forecast is that El Niño will have greater intensity between December 2026 and January 2027.
The FDC director stressed that El Niño does not behave uniformly around the planet and can vary significantly within the same region. “We say that the central region of the world will have droughts, and rains at the extremes. But not necessarily. There are different impacts within the Amazon, different impacts also within the Central-West. In Africa it also has a very strong impact”, he explained.
Brito highlighted that the Brazilian agricultural sector is already facing an adverse situation before they even make themselves felt fully. “The evil stars are all aligned for Brazilian agricultural production,” he stated. The expert listed a series of negative factors that have accumulated since the beginning of 2026: high interest rates, increased costs and falling prices.
In addition to the financial difficulties, Brito pointed out that the war in the Middle East contributed to a significant increase in the price of fertilizers and the prospect of a shortage of the input. “There will be a lack of fertilizer in the next harvest”, he warned.
This set of pressures makes the moment especially critical for Brazilian rural producers, who need to deal simultaneously with credit restrictions and instability in international markets.
