Iran promises “total ruin” if war resumes. What can happen if diplomacy fails

From blocking another strait important for world trade to potential attacks on targets in Europe

As negotiations between the United States and Iran approach , Tehran is increasingly signaling that any return to war would be very different from the last time.

US officials said on Thursday that a tentative agreement had been reached in talks between Tehran and Washington and was awaiting approval from President Donald Trump. However, even as negotiators reported progress, the military confrontation showed few signs of abating. The US launched its attack on Iran in a matter of days this week, while skirmishing in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have used the talks to project confidence that they maintain meaningful military options if diplomacy fails. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region”, threatening “devastating blows” and “total ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine”.

The warnings come after a war in which Iran attacked American bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in the Gulf Arab states, effectively blocking navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global energy shock.

Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “present many more surprises”, while the Iranian military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools”. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said the armed forces took advantage of the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “to the highest level.”

Experts say much of the rhetoric is aimed at preventing further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran maintains significant options for escalation if diplomacy fails.

Should war resume, here are some ways Iran could respond:

A new lockdown

Iran is unable to prevail against the US and Israel through conventional military means, so it has sought deterrence by inflicting global economic damage by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Emboldened by its success, Tehran may now seek to disrupt another vital maritime corridor.

By activating its regional ally, the Houthis in Yemen, Iran could orchestrate the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, blocking another vital artery that connects key trade routes between Europe, Asia and the Arab world. Such a move would worsen global economic pressure.

By 2023, more than 10% of global oil trade by sea passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. After the Houthis created maritime insecurity in the region near Yemen in 2024, that share fell by almost half in the case of oil and to close to zero in the case of liquefied natural gas, according to .

“A simultaneous crisis in Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would be much more serious, potentially affecting trade in the Red Sea and energy flows in the Persian Gulf, which would increase oil prices, transport rates and inflationary pressure around the world”, says Umud Shokri, energy strategist and senior visiting researcher at George Mason University, to CNN.

In recent years, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime navigation near Bab al-Mandeb by attacking, seizing and sinking vessels passing through its waters. But creating a blockade similar to that in the Strait of Hormuz would be “much more difficult”, says Shokri.

“Bab al-Mandeb is not directly controlled by Iran, and any prolonged closure would likely trigger a strong international naval response,” explains the analyst. “The most realistic scenario is not a complete physical shutdown, but a prolonged security crisis that makes commercial shipping too risky or expensive.”

Oil wells

If Trump follows through on his threat to attack Iran’s oil refineries, infrastructure and power plants, Tehran could seek to widen the war across the Arab world, targeting sensitive locations to sow global economic panic and inflict further damage on neighboring countries’ reputations as safe hubs for international business and reliable guarantors of global energy flows.

A member of Iran’s national security committee, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, says that if the US attacked Iranian oil facilities, Tehran would retaliate by attacking the oil wells of Gulf Arab states – a significant escalation from the 40-day war, when Iran primarily targeted refineries or pipelines.

“If they intend to do something so that we run out of oil, we will not attack their pipelines, we will attack the wells, so that they too run out of oil and fuel becomes expensive for the world,” declared Ardestani, quoted by Iranian media.

Critical infrastructure

Even after the ceasefire came into force on April 8, the United Arab Emirates held Iranian-backed groups in Iraq responsible for an attack on the Abu Dhabi nuclear plant, while Saudi Arabia was also the target of drone attacks from Iraq.

During the war, Iran fired missiles at civilian targets, including hotels and airports, but fired very few projectiles at essential desalination plants that provide drinking water to millions of people in the region.

And despite issuing evacuation warnings against American educational institutions in the region, there have been no reports of Iranian attacks on schools or universities.

Despite all the rhetoric, Grajewski downplays the threat of “surprises” from Iran, noting that Iranian weapons are well known. “They certainly have a range of over 2,000 kilometers, but it wouldn’t be a new weapon.”

European targets

Earlier this month, Telegram pages linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) published satellite images purportedly showing American aircraft parked at Chania Airport on the Greek island of Crete.

CNN was unable to verify the authenticity of the images, but the Revolutionary Guard’s threat to expand its targets “beyond the region” if Iran is attacked again raises the possibility of retaliation in a much more distant area.

During the 40-day war with the US and Israel, Iran demonstrated its ability to launch ballistic missiles into areas previously considered untouchable.

In March, Iran is believed to have targeted Diego Garcia, a joint US and UK military base in the Indian Ocean, 3,200 kilometers from Iran, in what appears to have been its first attempt to reach the base.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior research fellow at the Washington Institute, says that if a strengthened Tehran decides to test its long-range missiles against Europe in a surprise attack, targets could include RAF Fairford and RAF Lakenheath, key US-operated air bases in the United Kingdom, or the logistics and telecommunications hub of Ramstein, Germany.

“However, Iran would probably reserve this possibility for a very high level of escalation,” says Nadimi. During the war, Iran is also believed to have attempted to target British military installations as far away as Cyprus.

“I don’t think the Mediterranean is completely beyond the reach of its capabilities,” says Nicole Grajewski, assistant professor at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po, in Paris, to CNN. “The issue here would be accuracy.”

Drones, supersonic cruise missiles and satellite jamming

To increase its chances of hitting targets, says Nadimi, Iran could launch more sophisticated and coordinated swarms of artificially intelligent drones equipped with cameras that can communicate with each other and adjust flight paths and speed to avoid interference and air defenses.

“They have not yet demonstrated these capabilities, but they have discussed the development of this technology in the past”, says the researcher.

Tehran could also try to improve its cruise missile capabilities, modifying existing systems to reach supersonic speeds and thus prevent them from being intercepted, in addition to trying to interfere with military communications and surveillance satellites, he adds.