Poll shows leftist Ivan Cepeda, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and conservative Paloma Valencia in the lead
Nearly 40 million Colombians go to ballot boxes this Sunday (31) for elect the next president of the country. The successor to the current head of state, Gustavo Petrowill inherit the challenge of combating armed violence rooted in Colombia for over 60 years.
Since Monday (25), more than 1.4 million Colombian voters abroad vote in the first round of the presidential election. If none of 14 candidates in contention obtain more than 50% of the votes, there will be second round on June 21.
According to electoral research, the result of the election could culminate in continuity of the current government’s leftist agenda or in a Colombia’s rapprochement with the United States. Petro’s ally, the senator Ivan Cepeda (Historical Pact) leads the intentions of votes in the first round and promised to continue the social legacy of his political godfather. If you advance to the second stage of the election, your likely opponent will come from the right field.
The AtlasIntel survey, released on May 23, showed the far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (Defenders of the Homeland) com 36.3% of voting intentionsin the first round, against 37.7% of Cepeda. Admirer of the Argentine and North American presidents, Javier Miley e Donald Trumpthe jurist defendedin its campaign, the free enterprise ea traditional family. On the topic of security, promised to follow a “hard-line” approach.
Behind Espriella, according to AtlasIntel, a conservative senator appears Paloma Valencia (Democratic Center) com 13,9%. Linked to the former Colombian president Alvaro Uribethe parliamentarian opposes the “Total Peace” strategyby Petro, in which we sought negotiate the demobilization of armed groups in confronting violence in the country. She promised to develop a “Colombia 2.0 Plan” to combat drug trafficking in partnership with the United States.
Growth of armed groups
A report by the Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP), released in January, reported that Colombia began this election year in a greater context of insecurity than in past elections. According to the study, the instability scenario occurs due to the growth of armed groupsthe disputes between organizations and from difficulty of the State in regaining control of occupied territories.
As presented in the report, Colombian armed groups ended 2025 with more than 27 thousand memberswhich represents a increase of 23.5% compared to the previous year. The disputes reached the highest level in the last 10 yearswith 115 clashes — an increase of 34% compared to 2024.
In the study, FIP explained that the increase in clashes is related to end of agreements that made coexistence between armed groups viable. The foundation cited the case of the Andean area of Catatumboon the border with Venezuela.
In February 2025, an armed conflict broke out over control of the Andean region conducive to coca leaf plantingused in cocaine production. The dispute between the National Liberation Army (ELN) ea 33rd Frontdissident of the former FARCs (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), left approximately 117 deadaccording to the country’s Public Defender’s Office. More than 64 thousand people forcibly left Catatumbo by April 28, 2025. This was considered the Colombia’s most serious humanitarian crisis since the 1990s.
