The federal government works with a high probability of being very strong, and with direct impacts on Brazil, this year. The projection of authorities familiar with the matter is that the climate event has a 70% chance of being strong or even extra strong.
The predictions, however, are not yet definitive. Government technicians say they will only be able to have a more assertive estimate.
In a letter sent to the Civil House on May 19, the National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts (Cemaden) provides projections of more intense heat waves this year. The initial expectation is that the scenario will be similar to what happened in 2023/2024, one of the strongest in recent years.
The situation could worsen in September and October, according to projections from the agency, which is linked to the Ministry of Science and Technology. This would mean longer droughts, which could worsen with heat waves. The biggest concern is with Brazilian biomes.
Depending on the degree of drought, it is greater in the Pantanal and the Amazon, with a potential impact on the health of the population.
“In the North and Northeast regions, the trend is towards a reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperatures, which favors more severe periods of drought and greater pressure on water resources. In the Southeast and Central-West regions, the phenomenon may compromise part of the rainy season, accompanied by high temperatures, affecting the recovery of hydroelectric reservoirs and increasing the hydrological risk”, says the letter.
In the South, the concern is with more intense and voluminous rains. Technicians say there is a greater chance of floods, floods and flooding, as well as slope instability.
“Positive anomalies in areas where absolute accumulations are already high can produce relevant effects on river basins, urban systems, slopes and vulnerable areas.”
The body issued six recommendations to the federal government, including strengthening the monitoring of rain and drought forecasts, in addition to the full functioning of meteorological radars.
Cemaden also suggests the re-evaluation of critical areas, including occupied slopes, river banks and isolated communities. It also calls for more integration between the Union, states and municipalities, with monitoring, risk analysis, alert, public communication and response.
According to a US government agency, El Niño could become one of the most intense events of the last three decades. The forecast is that the planet will break the record for the hottest year in 2024.
has met frequently with technicians and authorities from the ministries involved to carry out more robust planning and try to prevent strong impacts from causing even more harm to the population.
LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscribers can access seven free accesses from any link per day. Just click the blue F below.
