Looking into the abyss again: how things stand after the return of cross attacks in the Middle East

Looking into the abyss again: how things stand after the return of cross attacks in the Middle East

The Middle East is once again looking into the abyss. The uncertainty, violence and pain, which have never gone away, have multiplied in recent hours as the cross attacks between the United States, Israel and Iran resume, reminding us that the war started by the allies on February 28 has not ended. We have had weeks of supposed partial agreements on the Strait of Hormuz, of negotiations with Pakistan as a mediator, of documents that come and go, but there is no peace. Yes, however, a well-known volatility, which can trigger at any moment. Like now.

This Wednesday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced attacks against a US base in Jordan and 21 other targets in the Persian Gulf, in retaliation for previous US attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media. These clashes constitute one of the largest exchanges of hostilities since both countries agreed to a ceasefire in April. There is only an armistice on paper.

The Iranian attacks, which included strikes in Kuwait and Bahrain, came after the US military announced on February 11 that it had attacked Iranian air defense, ground control stations and surveillance radars near the strait, in response to the downing of a US Apache helicopter on Tuesday, the president said. Donald Trump. “I think the response should be very strong, very forceful, and this is it,” Trump told ABC News yesterday.

It seems that no one wants a major war, but from incident to incident and provocation to provocation the leaders of the countries involved escalate, and thus the cemeteries, the rubble and – the most prosaic – the prices grow.

The escalation of violence deepens doubts about the prospects for an agreement to end the war. Tehran responded by attacking neighboring Gulf countries that host US bases and virtually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for transporting oil and gas.

The latest American attacks lasted approximately four hours before the United States Central Command announced their end shortly before 9:00 a.m. yesterday (six more hours in Madrid). A US official declared that almost 20 Iranian targets had been hit, Reuters reports.

Iranian state media reported that the island of Qeshm and the port city of Sirik, in the Strait of Hormuz, were attacked. Explosions were heard in nearby Bandar Abbas and later in the vicinity of Jask, near the entrance to the strait, Iranian media reported, citing local sources and residents.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared in response that it had attacked four targets at the US Al-Azraq base in Jordan with long-range missiles, Iranian media reported. This body also stated that among the objectives were F-35 fighter hangars and a command and control center, and warned that they were prepared to give a forceful and decisive response to any new US attack.

The Jordanian armed forces also announced this morning the interception and shooting down of five missiles launched from Iran towards Al Azraq. The army added that the remains of the operation fell in Jordanian territory, but caused no injuries or material damage.

The Kuwaiti military declared that its air defense systems were attacking hostile air targets and urged the population to follow official security instructions, after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced it had attacked the Ali Al Salem base in Kuwait with drones.

According to media reports, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have attacked the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with drones and threatened “tougher responses” if hostilities continued. Bahrain’s Interior Ministry reported that the warning siren had been activated and urged the population to seek shelter. The air defenses had repelled the Iranian attacks, according to a press advisor to the king of Bahrain published in X shortly afterwards.

In the first weeks of this conflict, up to 14 countries in the region were affected by projectile launches, in a global war that caused unprecedented personal damage and sank the image of a safe haven that the powerful countries of the Persian Gulf had had for decades.

Still, a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told CNN that initial assessments showed that almost all missiles and drones launched by Iran had been intercepted and that they were not immediately aware of any reports of damage to US personnel or US facilities.

Oil prices are already rising about 1% at the start of the Asian session on Wednesday following the escalation of hostilities.

Isn’t that a big deal?

On Tuesday, a U.S. Apache helicopter was shot down by an Iranian attack drone, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The two American pilots involved in the incident were unharmed, Trump said.

Iranian state media cited a military source as saying that no offensive military air operations had been carried out in the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours.

A U.S. Navy surface drone located and rescued the two crew members, the U.S. military said, after the U.S. Army attack helicopter crashed in waters off the coast of Oman while on patrol around 3 a.m. Tuesday (2300 GMT Monday).

The US military’s Central Command did not provide any explanation for the accident. He said the two crew members were rescued after two hours and were in stable condition, a more cautious assessment than Trump’s description.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi did not comment directly on the helicopter incident, but stated in a post on X that foreign forces in the region were at risk of being involved in accidents or crossfire.

“To reduce the risk, the best solution is for them to withdraw,” he wrote.

Trump told The Wall Street Journal during a phone call Tuesday that the helicopter incident was “not serious” and stressed that “the pilot is fine.”

However, the episode could further hamper efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran and the United States are close to a deal, although little progress has been seen since a fragile ceasefire went into effect in early April.

Fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon has continued, and Tehran has maintained its restrictions on most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Washington has imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing “very significantly,” but added that it will take many months to restore normal energy flows once the war ends.

Trump has claimed that any peace deal must ensure that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. Iran denies having such ambitions.

Iran’s demands include lifting international sanctions, releasing billions of dollars in frozen assets and recognizing its control over the strait.

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