Decision preserves the level of caution that influences energy prices in the short term; reduction could make the bill cheaper
The Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee, for 2027, the CVaR risk aversion parameters (Conditional Value at Riskin the acronym in English) adopted in 2026. The decision was taken at the 319th ordinary meeting of the body, held this Wednesday (June 10, 2026), at the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
The definition had been postponed, in May, so that the committee could incorporate the results of the 2026 Capacity Reserve Auction into the studies.
O It is CVaR a statistical parameter used in computational models of the electricity sector to measure the risk of energy shortages.
The CVaR parameters (15.40) were maintained for the Newave Híbrido operating and pricing models. For the expansion planning and physical guarantee calculation processes for Newave REE, the preserved parameter was CVaR (25.35).
CVaR influences the Difference Settlement Price, a reference used in the short-term energy market. The more conservative the parameter, the higher the PLD tends to be. A reduction in this risk parameter could represent a drop in electricity prices and benefit, in principle, those who consume it.
MAINTENANCE GENERATES STABILITY
According to CMSE, the current parameters have adhered to the operational reality of the electrical system and contributed to price formation that is more compatible with effective operating conditions. The committee also states that maintaining the methodology reduces the need for extraordinary interventions to guarantee energy supply.
Maintaining these parameters means that hydroelectric generators benefit from the stability of costs and values.
Furthermore, the parameter measures how much the system accepts hydrological risks. The model does not just use the average rainfall scenario. It gives extra weight to the most adverse scenarios. This leads the model to act more conservatively, with greater water retention in the reservoirs than it would have if only considering the historical average.
