Immediate opening of the toll-free and gradual lifting of sanctions in exchange for Tehran’s compliance, provides the draft of the US-Iranian memorandum of understanding,
citing a diplomat from a mediating country and a US official, this preliminary agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days – including in Lebanon – during which crucial negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program would take place.
Although the text includes a framework for managing Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, any definitive action will depend on a second, much more detailed agreement.
Diplomatic sources confirm that Washington and Tehran have reached a final text, but acknowledge that final approval is pending. As of Thursday night, the draft had been approved at the highest level on the Iranian side, but probably not yet by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, which explains why Iran’s Foreign Ministry .\
Feverish preparations in Geneva and a diplomatic thriller
Despite Tehran’s reticence, Donald Trump has said he expects the signing ceremony over the weekend. In fact, preparations seem to have already begun, as four US Air Force C-17 aircraft have departed for Europe, carrying equipment for the possible transition of the Vice President, JD Vance, to Geneva in the coming days.
Although, with talks collapsing at the last minute, mediators this time express diffuse optimism.
The draft was locked down on Wednesday night after hours of consultations between Qatari mediator Ali Al-Thawadi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. During the talks in Tehran, Al-Thawadi was on the phone with Trump’s emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Netanyahu in complete blackout
Trump’s sudden announcement at the Truth Social sent shockwaves through Tel Aviv. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was completely unaware of the developments, and as a result, in recent days he has been making frantic phone calls to his allies close to the Trump administration, trying to gather information about the content of the consultations.
Under the terms of the memorandum, Iran is primarily committed to never acquiring a nuclear weapon. A senior US official has revealed that Trump has agreed as one of the options to downgrading the level of uranium enrichment inside Iranian soil, under the strict supervision of UN inspectors. However, whether these steps will materialize remains uncertain, given how difficult negotiations have proven to be even for this less technical memorandum.
Oil, sanctions and “frozen” billions
On the economic side, the agreement foresees the immediate opening of the Straits of Hormuz, with the promise that shipping will return to pre-war levels within 30 days.
In return, the US will lift the naval blockade and grant Iran temporary exemptions from sanctions for 60 days, allowing it to sell oil and secure valuable revenue. Economic relief will be scaled up as long as Tehran shows “good faith” in the next talks, as the lifting of sanctions is inextricably linked to the implementation of the agreements.
The ones that remain “frozen” abroad. Tehran demands an immediate release of some of the money upon signing, while the US insists on an installment payment based on compliance. At the same time, concerns are being expressed by American analysts about the existence of a possible “secret parallel agreement” for these funds, which the White House denies, while a mechanism is already being discussed through Qatar so that Iran has access to funds exclusively for the purchase of humanitarian goods.
If the two sides eventually sign off, the agreement, which is being brokered jointly by Qatar and Pakistan, will officially be called the “Islamabad Agreement.”
