Unexpectedly, two high-ranking delegations from and will meet next Friday 19/6 in Switzerland to officially sign and take the first important step towards ending the war in the Gulf.
The semiotics of the ceremony at the Burgenstock resort will correspond to the upheavals that marked this asymmetric conflict, the new balances that are being formed, as well as the political risks that specific persons take by expressing distinct tendencies within their countries.
The biggest burden will be borne by the heads of the two delegations who are expected to put their signatures: on the American side, the vice president – who will be accompanied by President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steven Witkoff – and on the Iranian side, the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who will be accompanied by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The “civil war” in the White House and the furious Trump
Vance is portrayed by US media as the leader of the camp inside the White House that advocated an “honest exit” from the crisis through negotiation, with presidential son-in-law Kushner and presidential friend Witkoff on his side.
Opposing them were Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA chief John Ratcliffe and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who doubt Iran’s sincerity over its nuclear program and see Tehran as trying to buy time.
According to reports, Trump is furious with the Rubio-Ratcliffe-Hegseth triumvirate and with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, as he believes they “lured” him into war with Iran.
The new strongman of Tehran
On the Iranian side, Ghalibaf is seen as the new strongman of the Revolutionary Guards, which installed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in the country’s highest office after his father’s assassination, while simultaneously placing both President Massoud Pezeskian and the Iranian Foreign Ministry under commission. Ghalibaf talks about victory but will have to manage the next two months of negotiations realistically to give the Iranian people a breather and keep the mullahs in power.
If in Iran the strengthening of Ghalibaf was more or less expected after the failure of the Americans and the Israelis to overthrow the regime, the further emergence of Vance in the foreground of American politics is equivalent to a heavy political mortgage, which exceeds the limits of any communicative management of a strategic defeat of the USA.
Vance first “electronically” co-signed the agreement (along with Trump and Ghalibaf), then made repeated appearances in the American media (CBS, CNN, NBC, FoxNews) on the occasion of the publication of his new book, but mainly to defend the president’s choices and to entertain the negative impressions of “capitulation”, while avoiding revealing the details of the memorandum, which according to him exceeds a page and a half.
The man who has been identified like no one else since Trump with the slogan “America First” said that the memorandum is a great victory for the US and for those interested in peace and stability in the Middle East while he assured that it is a good agreement for Israel as well.
The succession battle for MAGA’s ring
It is no coincidence that while Vance appeared on American channels, Secretary of State Marco Rubio chose to remain silent, although the State Department insisted that the secretary is in tune with the government line.
The two politicians are seen as the top successors to Trump, who has even questioned on camera which of the two is better suited and better suited to fly the banner of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement that is transforming the Republican Party.
Since Trump cannot seek a third presidential term, one political scenario in Washington wants Vance to run for president in the next election with Rubio as his running mate.
Another wants them in reversed roles. And a third scenario wants them to be already on an inevitable collision course. What is certain is that the war on Iran and the looming deal have divided Republicans.
Vice President Vance is acting within his institutional role and acting as Trump’s shield, but he is playing it all for all in a high-stakes game around Iran. If the negotiation moves forward and there are tangible, positive results for the American people, perhaps Republicans will avoid defeat in November’s congressional re-election and Vance himself will score points. If the deal collapses, Vance will bear the brunt of the failure more than any other member of the administration.
Responding to reports of disagreements within the administration on Iran, a White House official said that “President Trump listens to all opinions on every issue, but everyone understands that he makes the final decisions.”
