Industry considers the reduction insufficient, while economists say that the statement raised the bar for further falls in the Selic
The reduction in the Selic rate from 14.50% to 14.25% per year announced this Wednesday (June 17, 2026) by Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) was received differently by industry representatives and financial market economists.
While business entities defend an acceleration of the cycle of cuts, experts estimate that the Central Bank has adopted a more cautious approach and may interrupt monetary easing at upcoming meetings.
The National Confederation of Industry classified the decision as insufficient to reverse the stagnation of investments and alleviate the financial situation of companies and families. According to the entity, the Selic remains 3.1 percentage points above the equilibrium level, estimated at 11.1% per year.
The president of the CNI, Ricardo Alban, stated that real interest rates remain high and limit the expansion of economic activity. For him, the agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East leaves room for the Central Bank to accelerate cuts, given the reduction in pressure on oil prices.
The president of Fiesp (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo) published his criticism on social media: “The interest rate scenario is unsustainable and holds back those who want to produce, advance and grow”he wrote.
The chief economist at Firjan (Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro), Jonathas Goulart, declared that the context in which the national industry is going is challenging. “In addition to the increase in input and freight costs, resulting from global geopolitical instability, the high – and persistent – cost of capital is a fundamental factor that reduces the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the domestic and foreign markets”.
Fiemg (Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais) adopted a more moderate position. The entity assessed that the Selic reduction represents progress for the business environment, but highlighted that the 14.25% rate is still restrictive and continues to pose challenges to productive activity.
SURPRISE WITH HARD TONE
In the financial market, the predominant reading was that the cut had already been priced in, but the Copom statement was surprising due to its harsher tone.
Advisor to Ancord (National Association of Brokers and Distributors of Securities, Exchange and Commodities), Pablo Spyer stated that the monetary authority recognized the worsening of inflation projections and market expectations, in addition to citing for the first time the stimulus to aggregate demand as a risk factor for prices.
According to Spyer, the removal of the section that suggested new cuts as a natural consequence of the calibration process indicates that the continuity of flexibility will depend on the next indicators. For him, “the bar for new cuts has become higher” and the interest rate reduction cycle is nearing its end.
In the same vein, the chief strategist at GCB Investimentos, Roberto Dumas, said that the main message of the statement was the recognition of a further departure from inflation projections in relation to the target. In the economist’s assessment, the text had a more “hawkish”a term used by the market to describe a more rigorous attitude in combating inflation.
Dumas stated that, given this scenario, the Central Bank may choose to interrupt the cycle of falling interest rates at the next meeting, maintaining the Selic at 14.25% per year if there are no relevant changes in the economic environment.
“In our assessment, the BC preserved flexibility for further reductions in the Selic, but signaled that the pace and magnitude of the next movements will be defined based on the evolution of inflation, expectations and economic activity”, said Raphael Vieira, head of Investments at Arton Advisors.
