Flávio’s biggest challenge may be within his own family, says analyst

This Tuesday (16), opened a new front of concern for the presidential campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). In addition to the legal developments accumulated by the Bolsonaro family, the episode, according to analysts, exposes what should become the main conflict of the senator’s campaign: how to keep the Bolsonaro base mobilized without alienating centrist voters who will be decisive for the dispute.

During the Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneypolitical scientist Creomar de Sousa, CEO of Dharma and professor at Fundação Dom Cabral, assessed that Eduardo Bolsonaro’s actions, especially with the United States government, could produce contradictory effects for his brother’s candidacy. At the same time that it strengthens the identity of the more ideological Bolsonarism, it creates obstacles for the expansion of the candidacy among moderate sectors.

“Eduardo Bolsonaro has, for some time, positioned himself as an ideological reference in this more right-wing and anti-systemic camp. This helps maintain the cohesion of Bolsonaro’s militancy, because he speaks directly to a group of voters who want to hear exactly what he has to say,” he said.

On the other hand, according to the analyst, the more eloquent positioning of the former federal deputy could distance Flávio from his objectives.

“Still, it creates a problem when you get that profile of voters, especially from the center-right, who are tired of the figure of Lula, but who look to the side and do not think it is viable to vote for Flávio for fear that the most radical elements of Bolsonarism will emerge in a possible presidency”, he stated.

Electoral moment

The analysis takes place at a time when the senator’s campaign is precisely trying to regain support among voters who stayed away after the episode involving Banco Master. According to Creomar, until the crisis broke out, Flávio had managed to build an image different from that of other members of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s family.

“Until the outbreak of the Banco Master crisis, Flávio had a very clear strategy. It was to present himself as someone who carried his father’s convictions, but with less histrionic behavior on several issues. The senator himself, at times, used examples to reinforce this difference. The crisis shakes up a pre-campaign that was going very well and forces a reorganization of the strategy”, he said.

For the political scientist, the campaign’s task became to rebuild bridges with a voter who does not belong to the hard core of Bolsonarism, but who also demonstrates resistance to the Lula government. It is precisely this group that tends to decide the election.

“The challenge is to rediscover space for dialogue with a voter more loyal to Bolsonarism and, at the same time, advance on that undecided voter who will decide the election. No one wins a presidential contest just with your most loyal supporters. You will need to win over people who don’t have you as their first preference”, he stated.

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