Os oil prices operate with volatility this Friday (19), heading towards the second weekly drop, as traders assessed the prospects for a truce between the US and Iran, after the cancellation of negotiations.
At around 11:45 am, Brent oil rose 0.08% to around US$79.90 a barrel.
At the same time, WTI, a reference in the American market, fell 0.74%, to US$ 76.05 per barrel.
The cancellation of plans for the US and Iran to meet in Switzerland this Friday brought new uncertainty over the timing of negotiations.
Preparations for the start of technical talks were well advanced when US Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday that he had dropped plans to participate, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
On the other hand, Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire that is expected to begin at 4pm local time this Friday, a senior US official told Reuters.
“This highlights the difficult road ahead to achieve a full and uninterrupted resumption of oil flow through the Strait,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. “Undoubtedly, news of the extended ceasefire agreement will continue to shape market sentiment.”
as several oil tankers, including three Saudi-flagged ships carrying 6 million barrels of crude oil, passed through the strait hours after the US and Iranian presidents signed an interim agreement to end the war between the two countries.
Analysts expect the deal to release more than 85 million barrels of oil trapped in the Middle East Gulf to global markets. The deal also includes the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil, which would further increase supply.
About 20% of global oil and LNG supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but the recovery of flows and production following the U.S.-Iran deal could take several months.
Citi said its base case, with 60% probability, envisages a sustained normalization in flows, with oil markets entering surplus and prices trending downward over the next six to 12 months, to around $60–$65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027.
Commerzbank said oil supplies should recover gradually, cutting its Brent forecast to $80 per barrel by the end of the year from $85, although it expects prices to remain above pre-war levels for most of next year.
Iraq’s oil fields are ready to resume production, and production will gradually return to normal, restoring previous levels, said Oil Minister Basim Mohammed.
As far as demand is concerned, global demand will rise from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to 113.3 million bpd in 2030, OPEC said in its “World Oil Outlook 2026.”
*With information from Reuters
