The nearly 30-year-old book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe is once again attracting attention. The reason for this is their claim that American history repeats itself in regular cycles and that the current period of crises should peak and then be resolved around 2026.
The authors of the book, published in 1997, claim that US history takes place in roughly eighty-year cycles divided into four phases. They refer to the last of them as the crisis (Crisis) or the fourth turning (Fourth Turning).
“If the trigger of the crisis comes as planned around 2005, then the climax will occur around 2020 and the denouement around 2026. What will the United States look like after the fourth revolution ends? History offers no guarantees.” It could mean a permanent defeat from which our national innocence – and perhaps our nation – would never recover.” they stated.
According to supporters of this theory, several events of the last two decades coincide with the predicted period of instability. They point, for example, to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the financial crisis in 2008 or the covid-19 pandemic.
However, critics argue that the predictions were so general that they can be traced back to different events. The authors themselves did not predict any of these specific events. However, they warned of a period of economic upheaval, political discord, a decline in trust in institutions and repeated national crises.
“As many Americans know from their own family roots, history offers many examples of societies that have been wiped off the map, subjugated, or defeated enough to descend into barbarism.” warn the authors.
After Strauss’s death in 2007, Howe revisited the theory in 2023’s The Fourth Turning Is Here. He pushed the expected climax to the 2030s, but continues to maintain that the current period of instability is part of the same historical cycle. According to him, this period could be followed by a period of renewal, greater stability and strengthening of social cohesion.
