“Chaos and uncertainty”. With these words he described in “Step” the climate in the day before the critical (4/5) presidential election, the historian and child of Greek political refugees in the country, Apostolos Patelakis. People in Bucharest “are scared and confused. Really, we don’t know what to vote, we don’t know what political game is playing and who is really behind every candidate. “
Euroscepticist, pro -wisdom of Maga ideology, leader of the far -right alliance for the Romanian Unity (AUR), George Simon, who expects to reap the stream of social wrath by the cancellation of the far -right election of the far -right helped by Russian intervention. The latest polls give Simon a lead, with more than 30% in the vote intention. If he is elected to the position of President – which in Romania has a great influence on foreign policy and represents the country in the European Council – is expected to further “shake” European balances, removing Romania from Brussels in favor of Kremlin.
Simon is particularly concerned about Brussels for his refusal to support Ukraine militarily and financially, following the footsteps of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Reflection, however, also raises the fact that it is raising territorial claims from Ukraine and Moldova. In domestic politics, with the Maga ideology, he plans, like Ilon Musk, to eliminate “fraud and waste” in the public, in order to invest in national defense, doubled in the next five years Romania’s military budget (will amount to 4%).
“One -way to nationalism and Euroscepticism,” says Romanian political analyst Christian Pavoulescu, a professor at the National University of Political Studies and Political Administration in Bucharest and Police. “His admiration for leaders such as Trump and Jay Di Vans is promoting policies that will prioritize national sovereignty over supranational commitments. This could lead to tense relationships with the EU and re -evaluating the role of Romania in NATO. “
Elections in Romania: What will judge the second round
What will happen in the second round of the presidential elections on May 18 will be judged mainly by the dispersion, the undecided and the possibility of gathering pro -European voters, adds the Romanian expert who is watching anxiously once again the “growing Russian”.
Two politicians are distinguished in the pro -European “camp”: the Mayor of Bucharest, Nikusor Dan, founder of the Central Party “Union Save Romania” (USR), who descends as an independent (official candidate for USR) The ruling parties – the Social Democratic (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Hungarian Minority Party (UDMR). Dan and Antonescu garner 20% of the intention to vote in today’s first round.
“The canceled elections of 2024 emphasized how the Russian hybrid war, especially through social media, influenced public opinion by exploiting cultural and identity issues. Unfortunately, this strategy continues to form political discourse in the country, with nationalist traditional narratives being strongly popular with voters, especially in rural areas. Jorman Simon’s campaign capitalizes these emotions, emphasizing national sovereignty and traditional values, “Pavoulescu adds.
Will the Russian hybrid intervention favor Jordaze Simon?
“It plays a crucial role. Kalin Georgkescu’s previous success, despite his exclusion, indicates the dynamics of Russian intervention. Simon’s campaign “inherits” this impulse, calling voters who are frustrated by traditional parties and attracted to nationalist rhetoric. “
Will Simon, if elected, remove Romania from the EU and NATO?
“The elections are critical to the country’s geopolitical orientation. A Simon victory could try Romania’s pro -European course, aligning it with nationalist and populist movements in Europe. While a complete exit from the EU and NATO is unlikely, Simon’s assumption of the presidency could increase tensions within them. “
What is the relationship between Simon and Georgkescu, whose election was canceled? Will he appoint him Prime Minister?
“Obviously Simon and Georgkecus have ideological affinities, especially in terms of nationalism and skepticism towards Western institutions. Simon expressed the intention to appoint Georgkecus Prime Minister. Their cooperation implies a single front in promoting nationalist policies and challenging the current pro -European consensus. However, internal information is probably talking about the exploitation and tooling of Georgkescu by Simon, who essentially ignores the former candidate. “
In addition to his refusal to militarily support Ukraine, Simon appears in Moldova and Ukraine. Will it be a crisis factor with neighboring countries?
“Simon’s claims in the territories of Moldova and Ukraine have already led to bans on both countries. While these positions are provocative, they are unlikely to lead to an immediate military conflict. However, such a rhetoric could aggravate regional tensions and complicate diplomatic relations, especially with neighboring countries and in international alliances. “
To this day, the day before the election, much of the Romanian electorate does not know what to vote. What will judge the elections?
“The vote of the diaspora could be decisive. In last November’s elections, he massively voted for the far right. Simon leads about 30-32% nationally and has-along with the other far-right candidate and former prime minister with the left, Victor Ponta-60% support in Diaspora, less in Moldova. Central candidates Krin Antonescu and Nicusor Dan are fierce competitors and their ability to mobilize pro -European voters, especially between the diaspora and the indecisive electorate, is different. Dan seems to be more easily reached by pro -European voters of the diaspora, and therefore the Moldovan electorate, which makes about 10% of the electorate outside the border. But in many polls, Antonescu has a 2% lead over Dan. It is possible for a single front of the central parties in the second round, but internal divisions could prevent effective cooperation. The result will largely depend on the ability of these parties to gather support and present a convincing alternative to the nationalist narrative. “
What are the preferences of Romanian youth?
“Simon’s far -right AUR party has significant support among younger voters, despite their theoretical leftist tendencies. This trend reflects a broader shift to nationalism and populism among young people, which is determined by the tactics of the hybrid war and information on social networks that has exacerbated the frustration for traditional parties and drives into nationalism. “
