In just a few days, US President Donald Trump and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin should meet face-to-face. This will be the first meeting of leaders of both countries since 2021. In Switzerland, Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden met.
The Geneva Summit between Russians and Americans took place in an extremely tense situation. The Russian army unannouncedly maneuveled at the Ukrainian border, which some experts as an effort to see the Kremlin to meet meetings with those he considers to be its weight category.
A few months later, the Russians launched an extensive invasion of Ukraine. The context of Putin-Trump’s meeting has not changed so much since. Putin again seeks to negotiate only with those he considers to be seber.
Expecting the announced summit of US and Russia leaders in Ukraine, however, would be wrong so far. According to some experts, we are still at the beginning and may take years for the fighting parties to reach the final agreement of the peace settlement.
In this material we summarize how the meeting of both presidents and its possible results before the summit is evaluated by analysts.
Commentators and experts watching the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war are still restrained to the possible results of the Putin-Trump meeting.
Think-tank analyst R.Politik Tatiana Stanovaj points out that in Russian tactics towards Trump or Ukraine he still does not see any significant change. According to her, basically repeats what we have been watching from Trump’s inauguration, namely that Moscow just gives the impression that it is open to concession and serious negotiations.
“It has been doing this for some time, but the basic position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kiev to give up,” on his telegram account. Statovaja assumes that even this meeting will not bring peace. “Russia will continue its campaign AO for several months can be a new round of interviews – this time under even worse conditions for Ukraine,” he thinks.
Alexander Baunov, an expert of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, points out that Russia is trying to rendered the impression that Ukraine and its allies are responsible for stretching the war, not it alone.
“Moscow is trying to reformat the war so that it is fought there and such means where it has more advantages, and not where it does not,” on the social network.
Does the Kremlin stop rocket attacks?
“I wouldn’t have high expectations,” said Political scientist Maksy, Nespind for Ukrainian change.
According to him, there are too many disputed points on the air to resolve in a very short time – in this case several days.
“The leaders’ meeting assumes some result, a guarantee of a rather serious result. The temporary ceasefire in the air can be agreed at the level of advisors. There is no point in meeting the leaders of the countries for that. Today I can agree on something bigger? I don’t see any signals to prove it,” he said.
Nespind did not talk about the air ceasefire randomly. The agency reported a few days ago that the Kremlin is considering suspending the air attacks that do business against Ukraine. However, it continues to plan the war.
“Trump needs a ‘gift’ from Russia, a concession,” said Sergei Markov, a political analyst close to the Kremlin. “The air ceasefire could be such a gift,” the Russian analyst thinks.
Criminus disadvantageous for Putin
But they see it differently in Ukraine. “I do not understand how such an air ceasefire was realized. I do not think it is Putin ready for it, it is advantageous for Putin,” the Ukrainian publicist Vitaly Portnikov on his Youtub canal, saying that if the Russians actually stop attacking missiles or ballistic shots, they would give up instruments.
“The element of destruction of (military) infrastructure is the element of this war,” he said.
One of the declared goals of Russian aggression is the so -called. Demilitarization of Ukraine. In short – the destruction of its defenses.
According to Portnikov, Putin would also lose a tool for pressure to exert pressure on the Ukrainian population. “And thirdly, any air ceasefire creates opportunities, hoc even short, for investment. The development of our economy is contrary to Russian plans,” he noted portnikov.
The theme of the ceasefire “in heaven” is not new. In March with this proposal, which also included stopping the fighting at sea, Kiev came. It happened a few days after a diplomatic fiasco in an oval office and subsequent suspensions of US aid for Ukraine.
“We are ready to work quickly to end the war. Among the first steps, there could be the release of prisoners, an immediate ceasefire in heaven – a ban on the use of missiles, unmanned aircraft with long range, bombing of energy and other civil infrastructure – and immediate anesthesia at sea. who, after a quarrel in the White House, sought to decorate Donald Trump.
Since then, Putina regularly calls for a meeting.
The meeting of Putin-Zelensky is a question mark
Whether this happens during the upcoming summit is still questionable.
The Kremlin’s management has long been showing that he has nothing to say with the Ukrainian leadership. According to the New York Times, however, the Russians reportedly got a condition – Trump will only meet Putin if Putin also meets Greeny.
But the Russian President said on Thursday that there are “conditions” to meet the Ukrainian President.
According to Stanovajova analyst, the Russian ruler would only agree to meet the President of Ukraine under one condition – if there was a pre -agreed program and clear results in advance. “It’s still hard to imagine,” she recalled.
They showed it after the negotiations in Istanbul when they visit, Trump and Putin at all. Greenyj arrived in Turkey, but it was obvious that neither the US president nor the Russian had no reason to arrive at this stage of the negotiations.
Now their roads may be intersected in the Middle East. Although it is not yet officially known who will host the American-Russian summit, the Kremlin chief released the balloon that it could theoretically be the United Arab Emirates. These words are also underlined by the fact that Putin negotiated with President Sae Muhammad bin Zajid Ál náján on Thursday.
The fact that Trump and Putin could meet once in one of the Arab countries was said practically since Trump’s inauguration. Finally, the Americans and the Russians renewed “personal contact” in Saudi Arabia, where there were direct talks between countries in the spring.
For example, Czech Russia expert Marek Příhoda pointed out that the Russians have “Arab countries Glanc neutral and correct players who have not used tools to weaken Russia over the past three years, for example through the supply of raw materials,” and that is why they like to negotiate their land.
US designs
And what exactly should they meet next week? Again, there are more questions than answers.
For example, the Polish website came up with information that the Americans gave Russians several suggestions. These include a ceasefire (not permanent peace), factual recognition of Russian territorial gains – by postponing this issue by 49 or 99 years, as well as the abolition of most sanctions imposed on Russia and in the long run return to energy cooperation, ie imports of Russian gas and oil.
The daily also writes that there are no guarantees that NATO will not be expanded in the package – the Ukrainian ambitions of NATO entry Russians refer to the “primary cause” of the war. Moscow also did not receive a promise that it had previously insisted on – that the West would stop helping Ukraine militarily.
Nothing suggests that they would like to give up in the Kremlin just these ultimatum, which have been repeated for several years.
That is why some are wondering – why did Putin agree with the interviews at this stage of the war?
British notes that one of the possibilities is that the Kremlin chief hopes that involvement in dialogue with Trump could somehow affect the secondary sanctions by which he threatened the White House. These should be affected by Russian energy consumers in the event that the Kremlin does not conclude an agreement, as Ocharacterized by Donald Trump, “thanks to which people will stop dying”.
“The Kremlin may feel that Trump could convince the benefits of its conditions of the end of the war,” adds BBC comtenatories.
Long negotiations
Some experts point out that in the case of the Russian-Ukrainian War, there is no need to expect peace to claim in a few weeks or months.
American political scientist Samuel Charap, for example, that negotiations on the end of the war have not yet started.
However, the fact that the United States has been inserted into the process is crucial in this case. According to Charapy, Ukraine and Russia would probably not be able to agree on a ceasefire or permanent head without participation. “The positions of both sides are very different – and there is no reason to expect fast results due to the escalation on the battlefield. But that doesn’t mean it makes no sense to speak,” he said.
Charap also pointed out that wars that last longer than a year usually do not end up in 10 years.
“This is statistics: As soon as we cross the twelve -month limit, the leveling becomes much more difficult. Over time, the number of victims on both sides, the extent of destruction, the level of hostility increases. Finding common ground becomes more difficult. But almost all wars end either by the absolute victory of one party or negotiations. Necessary, ”he added.
