When on the evening of April 15, 2019, flames engulfed the wooden roof and toppled entire sections of it, spreading shock and grief even beyond France’s borders, he vowed to rebuild the UNESCO World Heritage Site within five years. Indeed, five years and eight months after the disaster, the French president took the first official tour inside the cathedral, whose public reopening is scheduled for December 7.
“The shock of the reopening will be as big as that of the fire, but it will be a shock of hope” said the president – and the truth is that France needs a “shock of hope”, since it is very close to experiencing a second big one political crisis within six months. The minority government could fall before Christmas – or even next week – if its political rivals do not back the 2025 budget vote and resort to a motion of no confidence.
Given the lack of autonomy, the prime minister is expected to attempt to “pass” the state budget by bypassing the parliamentary route and making use of a constitutional article that gives him this possibility. In this case, the parties of the left have already announced that they will file a motion against him. If the extreme right also votes for it, then France will find itself without a government and without a state budget for 2025.
It is recalled that after the results of the French elections, which did not have a clear winner, President Macron chose Barnier of the center-right Republicans, with whom he allied himself in the government. However, these two parties, which make up the governing coalition, do not gather enough seats to have a majority in the National Assembly, which means that they need either the support of the left-wing New People’s Front, or the far-right National Rally, and Jordan Bardela.
Prime Minister Barnier acknowledged his government’s fragile position in a television interview on Tuesday, warning that if a motion of censure is passed in parliament, thanks to what he called an “alliance” between the left and the far right, “there will be a big storm and very serious upheavals in the financial markets,” he warned.
Le Pen holds the keys to government
Until now, the government has relied on far-right support to stay in power.
However, Le Pen, if no significant changes are made to the 2025 budget bill. Among other things, she has called for a freeze on electricity taxes and an increase in state pensions from January.
Last Thursday, Barnier offered a compromise, promising not to raise taxes on electricity.
But the National Rally’s Bardella, while calling Barnier’s concession a “victory”, pointed out that “other red lines remain”, including medicine, immigration, pensions and a moratorium on tax increases.
Finance Minister Antoine Armand argued that the disagreement with the government is not a reason to “plunge the country into a fiscal and economic unknown”.
All this while France is under pressure from the European Commission to reduce its colossal debt.
The French are divided about Barnier
Meanwhile, French public opinion is divided on its opinion of Barnier.
Some 53% of French people want his government to fall, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for Sud Radio. However, a poll by BFM TV finds that more than half of the respondents believe that the overthrow of the government should be avoided.
