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Less than a year before the first round of the 2026 electoral period, scheduled for October 4, the electoral chessboard has gained new pieces and some important withdrawals in these last few weeks. On the national board, ; Tarcísio de Freitas is , while Romeu Zema has formalized himself as a pre-candidate, but is still struggling to take off.
In parallel, Fernando Haddad warned that he will not be a candidate in 2026, focusing mainly on supporting Lula’s re-election; and Michelle Bolsonaro stopped speculation about her entry into the race, as she recently told Reuters.
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Presidency: who wants it, who doesn’t want it and who watches
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) did not make his candidacy official, but suggested that he may seek re-election. The calculation involves maintaining the current coalition and evaluating the mood of Congress and the economy.
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) continues to speak as a presidential candidate while publicly denying that he is a candidate. He himself has not yet announced his candidacy; which means that, even though it is appointed as a reference, it still depends on party articulation and internal support for the Republicans. Despite the movements, his focus is on seeking re-election as governor of São Paulo. He is seen in the market and by right-wing governors as a name capable of unifying platforms.
Romeu Zema (Novo) announced his pre-candidacy in August; two months later, it has not converted attention into traction in research, and is trying to expand its base outside of Minas Gerais. The governor who will no longer be able to run for state office in 2026 is being seen as a “candidate around”. Its focus, for now, is on expanding national projection.
As for the former first lady, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), she ruled out the possibility of running “for now”, while Bolsonarism is looking for a successor to fill the space after Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction.
Fernando Haddad (PT) and warned the party that his focus is the economic agenda and, politically, coordinating Lula’s campaign if it exists.
Behind the scenes
In the conservative camp, governors and parties debate two routes: launch several names and then converge in the 2nd round; or unify at the start, with Tarcísio as the most cited “synthesis”.
In Brasília, the election of the new heads of Congress reinforced the discourse of independence in relation to the Planalto, a variable that weighs on Lula’s decision and the engineering of party alliances.
State governments
The 2026 map will have forced renewal in 18 of the 27 States, because the current governors are already in their second consecutive term. Among those who cannot be re-elected are, for example: in Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema; in Paraná, Ratinho Jr.; in Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite; in Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado; in Mato Grosso, Mauro Mendes; in Pará, Helder Barbalho; in Amazonas, Wilson Lima; in Acre, Gladson Cameli; in Roraima, Antonio Denarium; in Rondônia, Marcos Rocha; in Paraíba, João Azevêdo; in Rio Grande do Norte, Fátima Bezerra; in Espírito Santo, Renato Casagrande; in the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha; in Tocantins, Wanderlei Barbosa; and in Rio de Janeiro, Cláudio Castro.
In fact, Castro says he does not intend to run for anything in 2026, opening a dispute for local succession. Caiado also mentioned a possible candidacy for the Presidency in 2026. In an interview with CBN Goiânia last Monday (10/20), the state governor said that he remains a pre-candidate for the presidency of the Republic with União Brasil.
In other states, 9 governors indicate that they will seek re-election, with the Northeast concentrating the majority of attempts. In the North, most governments will be replaced. These movements redesign regional platforms and can reallocate leaders towards the Senate and the Chamber.
In the case of the former minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, Márcio Macêdo (PT/SE), for example, he is now moving decisively towards the 2026 elections. He left his position this past week to dedicate himself to his candidacy, according to a video published by himself. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would have requested that Macêdo enter the electoral race, and one of the options being evaluated is a dispute for the Senate.
Furthermore, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL/SP), in a move seen as strategic for the 2026 electoral cycle. The appointment was accompanied by a “freezing” of Boulos’ own candidacy. The government’s support is for the former federal deputy to assist the strategy and, at least for now, not immediately enter as a direct candidate for the Presidency or the Senate.
Parties
Legends such as the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and União Brasil have moved away from the spotlight, but are crucial in designing alliances, according to analysts. The PSD, for example, is seen as the pivot of right-wing articulation for 2026.
The Workers’ Party (PT) has not yet formalized Lula’s candidacy. Such lack of definition, according to behind the scenes, can generate internal tension.
A more recent survey by Genial/Quaest shows that many parliamentarians are afraid about Bolsonaro’s return as a candidate, which forces the right to plan the “Bolsonaro legacy” without Bolsonaro himself.
National polarization is reflected in the states: state alliances are already being designed with an eye on the presidential race, and smaller parties are trying to gain prominence to bargain in larger coalitions.
