Currently, Donald Trump’s name unites the celebrations in the governments of Brazil and Argentina. However, what looks like a celebration is actually an expression of relief.
In the case of the Brazilian government, the feeling stems from the start of negotiations between Trump and the , which could eventually lead to the removal of at least part of the sanctions imposed by the United States on Brazil. In Argentina, relief comes both from American financial aid and from important support in the legislative elections, which brought a brief breather at a critical moment and opened the prospect of a more favorable economic and political horizon.
It is undeniable that Donald Trump has considerable influence over recent events, but would this influence be capable of effectively altering the course of events? In Brazil, much of the political winds favorable to President Lula result from mistaken decisions made by opposition forces — decisions that are not restricted to their stance towards Trump. These forces, at this moment, live up to the popular saying that “the worst blind person is the one who doesn’t want to see”. Thus, the main reason for Brazilian relief is, in fact, internal political factors.
In , the most important domestic factor was voters’ fear of the possible return of Peronism, considered failed and worn out. The problem is that feelings of relief like these are often fleeting. Broad geopolitical issues determine the way the United States government treats Brazil and Argentina — always in exclusive defense of its own political and economic interests, in an international scenario dominated by the strongest.
In other words, both Brazil and Argentina remain far from resolving their crises. Still, we can only hope that things go well — and let Trump continue to believe that everything depends solely on him.
