Tarcísio and Ratinho Jr. calculate steps in the RJ crisis – 10/30/2025 – Power

Two of the most popular names for a possible dispute against (PT) next year, the governors of , (Republicans), and Paraná, . (PSD), opted for caution in the face of the new .

In the opposite direction, the other presidential candidates of the political group, Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais, and Ronaldo Caiado (União), from Goiás, in the first hours endorsed their colleague’s action ().

Tarcísio also showed solidarity at Complexo da Penha, but only did so publicly on Wednesday night (29). Ratinho spoke privately with Castro, but did not speak out on social media.

A declared pre-candidate for Planalto, Ratinho is treated as the main name by wings of the business community and the political world if Tarcísio is not a candidate. The governor of São Paulo, in turn, states that he will seek reelection in 2026, while aides await an explicit indication from Bolsonaro for him to enter the presidential race.

According to Sheet published, right-wing governors see the agenda as one for Lula and getting rid of the amnesty agenda for (PL).

Monitoring networks circulated among state government assistants throughout Wednesday that showed greater support from the population for the topic.

In the late afternoon of this Thursday, the right-wing governors met at the Palácio de Laranjeiras, in a meeting organized by (PL), from Santa Catarina, to discuss public security. Ratinho Jr.’s participation came and went: he wouldn’t go initially, then he decided to go, but, in the end, he didn’t go, due to a delay in an auction at B3.

Tarcísio, in turn, was invited to the second meeting, in person, in Rio, this Wednesday (30), but, late Tuesday afternoon, when the lethality of the operation became more evident, he announced that he would not go in person, but would participate virtually. He scheduled a health ceremony at Palácio dos Bandeirantes, with the presence of mayors.

According to reports from interlocutors, the governor of São Paulo received all kinds of advice. Some assistants suggested that he position himself alongside Castro, as it was an issue dear to his electorate and in relation to which he could not be exempt. From others, the advice was to adopt caution: the case is complex and it is possible that the view on it will change if something even more serious appears.

Tarcísio published a long post on social media, eight paragraphs long, in which he quotes military theorist Carl von Clausewitz when talking about the conquest of territories. In the text, he expresses solidarity with Castro, extending solidarity “to the families of the police officers who fell heroically in combat and to the population that suffers the consequences of this excessive violence.”

The governor’s allies reaffirmed their support for Castro and say that he chose to take a position by note, at the end of the day, because the topic is complex and he wanted to consider all the points, in a consistent text.

The governor has already faced criticism for the actions of the São Paulo PM, especially after Operation Escudo, in Baixada Santista, which left 28 people dead, and for the statement regarding abuse complaints presented by entities to the UN (United Nations).

On Tuesday morning (29), he participated in a virtual meeting together with other opposition governors about the crisis in Rio, at a time when news was still emerging that residents were taking bodies to Praça São Lucas, in Penha. Ratinho Jr. was invited, but did not participate in this first conversation.

The man from Paraná told his colleagues that he would be at an external event and did not participate in the virtual meeting. He also initially claimed that there was a lack of space on the agenda for the face-to-face meeting in Rio. He had even scheduled Secretary Hudson Leôncio Teixeira to talk to the Rio de Janeiro team on Monday to offer help. Then, on Wednesday night, he changed his mind and went to the meeting this Thursday.

Ratinho’s team tries to build a more moderate image of him and assesses that there were missteps by Tarcísio, such as the STF (Supreme Federal Court), which reinforced the possibility of him trying to differentiate himself.

The positions of the governors of Paraná and São Paulo differ from those of Zema and Caiado, who were more direct and seek to establish themselves as candidates for the Planalto Palace on the right.

The governor of Minas Gerais stated that Rio could not “be abandoned”. He defended mass arrests, as in El Salvador, and criticized Lula, who four days earlier had said that traffickers were victims of drug users — the PT member later recanted.

Caiado told Sheet that Castro’s operation represented a “rescue of the democratic rule of law” and also attacked the Lula government, which was “complacent with crime”.

Only right-aligned managers were invited to the meeting in Rio de Janeiro — from Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Distrito Federal, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná.

In the opinion of a centrist governor interviewed by the report, this approach would contaminate the meeting, reinforcing its political nature. For him, Ratinho and Tarcísio want to avoid being linked to what is, at the very least, a controversy. This reading is shared by an assistant to one of the right-wing governors who will be at the meeting.

Both Lula’s and Castro’s allies criticized what they called the politicization of the operation in Rio. On the first day, the two sides exchanged accusations and criticisms.

The governor complained about the lack of help from the Union, but made no formal request. He then retreated and, in a meeting with members of the Lula administration, announced on Wednesday (29) a joint cabinet with members of both governments.

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