Analysis: Rio is a way for Bolsonarism to let go of Bolsonaro – 10/31/2025 – Power

The crisis resulting from the most lethal action in the history of the Rio police, became a discursive lifeline for the right and cornered the government (PT), which had been riding a wave of good news towards 2026.

The embryo of the reaction is, yet another working group in a country accustomed to announcing them when there is no solution to a problem. Thus, the anti-PT spectrum serves as a platform for a rhetorical dispute in a field in which the right usually has an advantage.

It is evident that killing people, promoting mass incarceration and other “simple” measures (compulsory quotes) do not resolve the fundamentals of public security.

This demands intensive use of intelligence, addressing the fact that organized crime is transnational. Deaths can occur, of course, but they cannot be the starting point, see what the Israeli policy of

The consortium may even promise progress, but it is unlikely to succeed without national coordination, integrated with the federal government, which should have keys to the country’s borders and accurate financial monitoring resources. Furthermore, when governors talk about the joint use of police forces, the insurrectionary smell becomes strong.

That said, there is discourse, and anything that opposes crime has more resonance among the population. Lula knows this, so much so that he made Minister Ricardo Lewandowski (Justice) leave the platform he set up for himself to criticize () and head to Rio to meet with the governor.

The people from Rio de Janeiro, in fact, changed their minds at the beginning of the crisis, blaming the federal government and then saying that it wasn’t quite like that. Now, supported by its peers, it is heading in a more predictable direction.

For the president, it is a minefield, and his surroundings do not help, see (General Secretariat) at the time when asking for a minute of silence for the victims in Rio, apart from the speeches by Lewandowski and others.

Again, this is not to criticize them for what they think, but politically it seems shortsighted. The bulk of the population affected by the state of exception that has plagued Rio for decades, who want some type of solution, are the same socioeconomic stratum that votes for Lula.

The president is already acting as an antidote, but he will have to control his “humanist rights” and himself, as his clumsy speech in defense of drug traffickers after the misfortune showed, if he wants to at least deflate the rhetoric of his opponents.

For them, the path is not clear. If there is boredom with the disorder in Rio, otherwise associated exactly with politicians going to jail, and the city-state is the symbolic heart of Brazil, there is a risk of association with barbarism.

As occurred in the wake of the Carandiru massacre in 1992, the population may have contempt for criminals, but they are not insensitive to bloodshed. Orestes Quércia’s group, which formed a dynasty, was decimated by the episode.

Obviously, the comparison ends there, given that people held by the state, without defense, were slaughtered. Now, it is a combat situation, even though the abuses seem evident.

But the right wing reserve, . (PSD-PR), the launch of the consortium shows that there is caution. Even (Republicanos-SP), the first option in the group, preferred to lend its support from afar, given the toxicity with which a large part of the political world views Castro’s government, accidental heir to

All of this occurs at a time when Lula was betting everything on a radicalization of speech, as Boulos’s move to the heart of the government exemplifies, on issues such as the dispute with Donald Trump, the clash with Congress and the Income Tax exemption flag.

Icing on the cake, the hardships of Bolsonarism that dominates the right. With the imminent arrest of (PL) and the failure of the amnesty agenda for him and others convicted of coup plotting, the group was disoriented.

Now, with the Chief Executives trying to work together despite their differences, there is a chance that the group will continue without carrying their patron, even if their flags remain the same.

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