Monthly rate fell from 0.48% in September to 0.09% in October; inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance of up to 4.5%
Brazil’s inflation slowed down in October. The monthly rate fell from 0.48% in September to 0.09% last month. Annualized inflation –accumulated over 12 months– fell from 5.17% to 4.68%.
The (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released the result this Tuesday (11.nov.2025). Here is the presentation (PDF – 931 kB).
The result below the estimates of financial agents.
O Poder360 showed that the median projections for monthly inflation was 0.16% in October. The IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) calculates inflation in Brazil on a monthly basis.
Accumulated inflation in 12 months was below that obtained by Poder360which was 4.69%.
INFLATION TARGET
In July, the Central Bank announced that inflation. The Minister of Finance, said he believes that the rate will be within the permitted level in December of this year.
The CMN is the body that decides what the inflation target is. It is composed of:
- President of the BC: Gabriel Galípolo, nominated by Lula;
- Minister of Finance: Fernando Haddad;
- Minister of Planning and Budget: Simone Tebet.
MONETARY POLICY
The (Central Bank) is convinced that the level of the basic rate, the Selic, is sufficient to converge inflation to the target, said the minutes of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee), released this Monday (10.Nov.2025).. Here is the document (PDF – 426 kB).
The collegiate the basic rate, the Selic, at 15% per year on Wednesday (7.Nov.2025). It was the 3rd consecutive maintenance meeting of the . The Central Bank states that the strategy of maintaining the current level of interest rates per period “quite prolonged” is sufficient to ensure inflation convergence to the target.
The Minister of Finance, , said on Monday (10.Nov.2025) that for the Central Bank to start the cycle of interest cuts.
The Minister of Institutional Relations, (PT-PR), said on Thursday (6Nov.2025) that the Central Bank’s decision is . The vice-president and minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, (PSB), said he expected a reduction in the basic rate, the Selic, at the next Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting in December.
“The big problem is interest. The very high interest rate, and we hope that, at the next Copom meeting, the reduction curve will begin, retracts economic activity, especially durable goods, which have a higher cost”, said the vice-president at the inauguration of the Heineken brewery factory in Passos (MG).
O Poder360 showed that those appointed by the government (PT) to the Central Bank voted to cut the Selic rate in 2025. There were 7 meetings.
Brazil has the 2nd highest real interest rate –considering inflation– in the world. The rate in the coming months, according to .
