According to Copernicus’ Climate Change Service (C3S), ‘there is certainty that 2024 will be the hottest year on record’ with average temperatures higher than the pre-industrial level
The year 2024 will be the hottest on record and will be the first to surpass the 1.5°C warming level compared to the pre-industrial period, a limit established by the Paris Agreement, announced this Monday (9) the European Copernicus observatory. After recording the second hottest November since data compilation began, “there is certainty that 2024 will be the hottest year on record” and the average temperature will exceed “by more than 1.5°C the pre-industrial level ”, reported the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
November, characterized by a succession of devastating typhoons in Asia and the continuation of historic droughts in southern Africa and the Amazon, was 1.62°C warmer than a normal November at a time when humanity did not use oil, gas or coal in industrial scales. November was the 16th of the last 17 months that recorded an anomaly of 1.5°C compared to the period 1850-1900, according to the Copernicus ERA5 database.
The symbolic barrier corresponds to the most ambitious limit of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which seeks to contain warming below 2°C and continue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The agreement refers to long-term trends: an average warming of 1.5°C must be observed over at least 20 years to consider the threshold exceeded. Taking this criterion into account, current warming is 1.3°C. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) considers that the 1.5°C limit will probably be reached between 2030 and 2035. And whatever the evolution of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions, it will be close to the limit, but still without registering a downward trend.
310 billion dollars of damage
According to the most recent calculations by the world is not on the right path to reduce carbon pollution and avoid a sharp worsening of the droughts, heat waves or torrential rains already observed, which cause many deaths and economic impacts. The countries’ current policies take the world towards a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C during the century, or 2.6°C if the announced promises are fulfilled, according to UN Environment. Countries have until February to present to the United Nations a review of their climate objectives until 2035, called “nationally determined contributions” (NDC).
But the minimum COP29 agreements at the end of November can be cited to justify modest ambitions. Developing countries were promised annual aid of 300 billion dollars (1.8 trillion reais) from rich countries until 2035, that is, less than half of their demand to finance the energy transition and adaptation to climate damage. . THE of Baku ended without the explicit commitment to accelerate the “transition” towards the end of the use of fossil energy, approved at COP28 in Dubai. In 2024, natural catastrophes, fueled by warming, will cause economic losses of 310 billion dollars (1.9 trillion reais) worldwide, Swiss Re, a Swiss company that acts as the insurer of insurers, announced last week.
Cloud reduction?
In 2023, the natural phenomenon El Niño combined with human-caused climate warming to drive global temperatures to a record high. How to explain the new peak in 2024? The year following El Niño “is often warmer than the first” and after a maximum point in December-January “the value is distributed throughout the year”, scientist Robert Vautard told AFP. But, in 2024, “it is true that the cooling is very slow and the causes will have to be analyzed”, he adds.
“For now, we remain within the expected projection margins, but if temperatures do not decline more clearly in 2025, we will have to ask questions,” he said, before traveling to an IPCC working session in Kuala Lumpur. A study published in the journal Science on Thursday points out that in 2023 the Earth reflected less solar energy into space, due to the reduction of low-altitude clouds and, to a lesser extent, the decrease in the ice layer. In Antarctica, the ice sheet has remained at historically low levels since 2023, highlights Copernicus, with a new melting record observed in November.
*With information from AFP
Posted by Victor Oliveira
