PL Dosimetry: Bolsonaro spends up to 4 years in a closed regime – 12/09/2025 – Power

The new opinion on the bill to reduce sentences for those convicted of the coup acts of January 8, 2023, filed this Tuesday (9) by the deputy (Solidariedade-SP), could reduce the former president’s prison time () in , according to the rapporteur and opposition parliamentarians.

Depending on the interpretation, however, the text could lead to a smaller reduction, to something between 3 years and 4 months and 4 years and 2 months under a closed regime. Any reduction to the level expected by the opposition will depend on the remission of the sentence, that is, on Bolsonaro reducing his time in prison through work or study.

With the current conviction, the time spent in a closed regime is estimated.

The proposal will be voted on this Tuesday in the plenary of , according to the president (-PB). The opinion was then filed, after months of negotiation. The opposition gave up proposing an amendment to the project to provide broad and unrestricted amnesty to all those convicted of coup acts, in exchange for the center’s support for the reduction of sentences.

Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison by the STF for five crimes, as leader of the coup plot. Another seven defendants were sentenced to imprisonment. In addition to them, hundreds of people were punished for the acts of January 8th.

The opinion filed by Paulinho unifies the crimes of violent abolition of the democratic rule of law and coup d’état, applying only the penalty to the one who is greater. Therefore, in Bolsonaro’s case, the crime of violent abolition of the democratic rule of law (6 years and 6 months in prison) would be ruled out. There would still be 20 years and 9 months in prison.

The legislation provides for , so that convicts with good behavior can migrate to the semi-open or open prison after a while. The project establishes that, in these cases, the progression regime will be after serving one-sixth of the sentence, not another quarter.

With the changes made by the project, progression would occur after 3 years and about 4 months.

The rapporteur, however, says that the reduction will be greater. “It’s more than 3 years, but then there’s the remission of sentences, and it drops to 2 [anos e] 4[months”Paulinhotold[meses”dissePaulinhoàSheetwithout detailing how it will happen. The project determines that redemption can occur even at home.

Lawyers, however, point out that the reduction may be smaller, as the text can be interpreted in such a way as to increase the penalty for a coup d’état between 1/6 and 2/3, depending on the judge’s interpretation – in this case, the STF (Supreme Federal Court).

With this, the prison time would range from 21 years and 10 months to 25 years and 1 month. With progression, it could reach 4 years and 2 months before migrating to semi-open.

The project could have a greater effect on others convicted of the coup plot. In addition to preventing the sum of sentences and the time for regime progression, the text allows for the reduction of sentences between 1/3 and 2/3 when crimes are committed “in a crowd context”, as was the case of the hundreds of people convicted of the coup acts of January 8, 2023, which vandalized the headquarters of the three Powers.

For this reduction in sentences, however, the convict or defendant cannot have committed a financing act or played a leadership role in the attempted coup d’état.

With the approval of the project, the center claims that it will be easier to convince Bolsonaro to support the presidential candidacy of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). On Friday (5), senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) put himself forward as a candidate, but later signaled that his “price” would be the approval of the amnesty. In an interview with Sheethe backed down and said his candidacy was “irreversible.”

The project, if approved by the Chamber, still needs to go through the Federal Government and then have the approval of President Lula (PT), who can veto it. Left-wing deputies rebelled against the proposal and will defend that the PT member vetoes the text.

source