Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador and Haiti share a characteristic this year that, far from being a source of pride, is a source of concern for their governments and societies.
All four Latin American countries are among the 10 most dangerous in the world in 2025, according to the conflict index published this Thursday by the non-governmental organization ACLED (Armed Conflict Event Location and Data Project). See the ranking at the end of the article.
Based on four indicators – mortality, danger to civilians, geographic scope of conflicts and number of armed groups –, the ranking places Mexico in fourth place, the same position it occupied in 2024, behind only Palestine, Myanmar and Syria, places ravaged by wars in recent years.
Ecuador ranks sixth in the ACLED indicator for 2025. For the South American country, this represents an increase of 36 positions compared to 2024, following a significant increase in violence levels this year due to clashes between local criminal groups.
Brazil and Haiti, in turn, occupy the seventh and eighth positions in the ranking, a situation resulting from the actions of gangs that dispute control of territories and, in the case of Haiti, take advantage of the constant political instability in the country.
A CNN contacted the governments of the four countries to comment on the index and is awaiting a response.
Mexico, divided between the dispute in Sinaloa and violence against politicians
According to ACLED, the increase in violence is common throughout Latin America. This trend varies from country to country and, in Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil and Haiti, its worst effects were felt throughout 2025, the report adds.
In the case of Mexico, the organization attributes the increase in violent incidents to factors such as the internal war that began within the Sinaloa Cartel after the
Zambada was imprisoned in the United States, where he claims to have been deceived by Joaquín Guzmán López, son of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.
“This conflict has reshaped criminal dynamics in several states, given the group’s national reach, and this reorganization will likely continue to fuel violence in new areas over the next year,” says ACLED about the case.
In August, the CNN reported that it increased by 400% in the year following Zambada’s capture. This data contrasts sharply with messages from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, which continually emphasize the drop in homicide statistics across the country.
ACLED, in turn, also highlights acts of violence against politicians and public officials in Mexico. against this sector in the last year.
“Violence is probably driven both by criminal groups seeking to gain control of local institutions and resources and by political competition, particularly in states like Veracruz, where there were local elections in 2025”, states ACLED, and mentions that an example of this situation is the murder of Carlos Manzo, mayor of Uruapan, who had denounced the activities of criminal gangs in this municipality in Michoacán.
Gangs put Ecuador, Brazil and Haiti in check
In Ecuador, the organization warns that levels of violence are expected to reach historic records in 2025. According to it, the homicide rate could be the highest in Latin America for the third consecutive year and gang-related violence has already resulted in the deaths of more than 3,600 people.
According to ACLED, this is explained by at least three factors: 1) the fight between the criminal groups Los Lobos and Los Choneros; 2) the fragmentation of gangs due to the arrest, death or exile of their leaders; 3) the country’s “growing relevance” in regional and transnational drug trafficking.
“With the continued increase in cocaine production, Ecuador is becoming a crucial strategic point, with Ecuadorian gangs expanding their networks throughout the region and beyond,” the organization states.
“The president [Daniel] Noboa faces a wave of violent crimes that shows no signs of abating, with reduced political capital and growing expectations”, he adds.
A similar situation occurs in Brazil, where gangs dispute control of large areas. In October, a police operation in Rio de Janeiro against the Comando Vermelho organization resulted in more than 120 deaths.
Meanwhile, in Haiti, these groups are taking advantage of the political instability that the country has faced since 2021, following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, to gain more ground and power.
According to ACLED, gang activity in Haiti is concentrated in Port-au-Prince, the capital, but has spread to other areas.
In response to this situation, the UN Security Council this year approved the creation of a new multinational force, made up of more than 5,000 people, with the aim of repressing these groups.
Using military force is an ineffective response
Why is violence increasing in these Latin American countries, despite their governments announcing measures such as sending more security forces?
Sandra Pellegrini, senior analyst at ACLED for Latin America and the Caribbean, believes that a fundamental element lies in the fact that, from her perspective, sending more military or police officers to the streets may generate a decrease in violent events in the short term, but not in a lasting way.
Pellegrini said to CNN This is because, in the medium and long term, the “militarization” of public security tasks can cause greater fragmentation among criminal groups and, therefore, provoke more violence, in addition to increasing the risk of abuses by the State’s own forces.
“This is a reflection that must be taken to decision makers who implement these types of policies that, in many cases, do not lead to the expected results,” he explained.
For Pellegrini, however, there is currently an unfavorable scenario for governments in the region to evaluate their actions and adjust their strategies, mainly because the policy of “zero tolerance” towards crime is popular in various social sectors and the United States government is putting pressure on Latin American nations – whether allies or not – to take measures against drug traffickers and other criminal groups.
“This tendency towards militarization already existed before the second term of [Donald] Trump. It happened before in El Salvador, followed by Honduras, and we also have Trinidad and Tobago, which began declaring a state of emergency last year. Therefore, there was already a trend”, said the analyst.
“Clearly, the United States’ position contributes to countries in the region adopting these measures.”
See the ranking of the 10 most dangerous countries in the world in 2025, according to ACLED
- Palestine (same position as 2024)
- Myanmar (same position as 2024)
- Syria (same position as 2024)
- Mexico (same position as 2024)
- Nigeria (same position as 2024)
- Ecuador (rose 36 positions compared to 2024)
- Brazil (dropped 1 position compared to 2024)
- Haiti (rose 3 positions compared to 2024)
- Sudan (same position as 2024)
- Pakistan (rose 2 positions compared to 2024)
