Iran’s supreme leader claimed that the and acted as the command center that planned the downfall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iran’s expulsion from the country.
also claimed that Iranian intelligence had been sending warnings to the Assad government of a possible attack for three months and predicted that the Syrian youth would eventually retake the country, remarks that are unlikely to make it easier for Iran to build strong relations with the new leaders in Damascus.
Making his first comments since the collapse of a key pillar of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told a rally in Tehran: “There should be no doubt that what happened in Syria is the product of a joint American and Zionist plan.
Yes, a neighboring government in Syria is playing an obvious role in this matter and is still playing – everyone can see that – but the main conspirator, mastermind and command center is in America and the Zionist regime. We have proof. This evidence leaves no room for doubt.”.
His reference to a neighboring government appears to refer to Turkey, which spread out of Idlib in a well-planned military operation that was far more successful than they had anticipated.
But Khamenei insisted: “Let everyone know that this situation will not remain as it is. The fact that some people in Damascus are celebrating, dancing and breaking into other people’s houses, while the Zionist regime is bombing Syria, entering its territory with tanks and artillery, is unacceptable. The Syrian youth will undoubtedly stand determined and overcome this situation”.
Worries about the next day
He also asked the media to be less negative about Iran, reflecting the fact that in recent days Iran has been conducting an open and self-critical inquiry into what went wrong with its strategy in Syria and its implications for its future security. Iran, including whether it will seek reconciliation with the West or build nuclear weapons. Two closed sessions of parliament have already been held to discuss the crisis, one with the foreign secretary and the other with the military.
Iran has already lost privileged access to the new government in Damascus, which will be dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) until at least next March, and was not among the group of Arab states offered a briefing on Tuesday in the capital. By contrast, Qatar, a country that has refused to recognize Assad, is set to reopen its embassy soon, and is likely to be a key player in trying to convince the Sunni HTS that it must be inclusive if it is to thrive and enjoy leniency. In a further blow to Iran’s status as a champion of the Palestinian cause, Hamas, the Palestinian resistance leadership in Gaza, hailed the fall of Iran’s ally Assad.
One of Shiite Iran’s first concerns is the protection of Shiite mosques, such as the Sayyida Zaynab Mosque near Damascus. Across Iranian social media and in the reformist press, an open debate has begun about how much Iran invested in supporting Syria and whether it was worth it. An early point of contention is whether Iran will ever be able to convince the Syrian government to repay the financial debt owed to Iran, which various estimates put at $30 billion to $40 billion. dollars. Investments in car factories are also at risk. So far 10,000 Iranians have been flown back from Syria.
“The axis of resistance will not weaken”
Images from Syrian prisons, such as Sednaya, . Faizullah Arabsorkhi, a reformist political activist, wrote: “If Bashar Assad had believed that governing the country without the people was impossible, he might have had a different fate.”
Javad Zarif, Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs, admitted that mistakes had been made in Syria, but argued that the time had come to change Iran’s foreign policy mindset from a threat-oriented to an opportunity-oriented one.
He said: “The reason for Assad’s downfall was his arrogance about his victory over the militants and his failure to turn the military victory into a win-win political deal and the creation of an inclusive government. But the speed of the fall was unexpected for anyone.
“Military victories are temporary and history shows that if they do not lead to a win-win political agreement, it can be the beginning of defeat.” He insisted that the axis of resistance would not be weakened, but many observers pointed to the loss of ammunition supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran is trying to break bridges
Zarif and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtsi are trying to end Iran’s regional isolation by strengthening diplomatic ties with countries such as Saudi Arabia. They are also trying to reopen talks with the West on monitoring its nuclear program.
A persistent Iranian analysis of the sudden speed of the collapse was the impact of US Caesar Act sanctions implemented in June 2020 and the fact that soldiers were only paid $16 to $17 per month, which was enough for 3 days. Araghchi stated that the army appeared to be psychologically unprepared to fight.
One of Iran’s most quoted political analysts, Abbas Abdiu, delivered a scathing note saying that “in just one week all political, economic and military investments have gone up in smoke.” He blamed those who refused to listen to criticism of the strategy and insisted that official state television channels were refusing to give airtime to warnings that defending Assad would lead to a stalemate.
He wrote: “Apparently, all parties concerned knew what was going to happen in Syria except Iran. Not a single man in Iran had awakened from this pleasant and, indeed, disturbed dream to declare the danger.’
The questions about Iran’s real power
“Bashar al-Assad is over, but this is a beginning for Iran. First of all, it should be answered very quickly and clearly where was the mistake and how much did we pay? Is it possible to form a reliable and independent panel of experts and answer this question? If not, then know that we are in a state of compounded ignorance and error.”
He said one reason for Assad’s fall was that Iran no longer had the power to provide support as its oil revenues, military power and Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon have declined.
An Iranian based in Amol stated that “ordinary Iranians are widely discussing the fall of Assad and what it means for Iran. Very few, even mid-ranking members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, agree with the Assad regime. Everyone knew it was a supported dictatorship.”
Aware of the criticism, Khamenei insisted that “Iranian troops were there to advise the Syrian government on defeating the Islamic State,” and reminded the audience that Syria was one of the few countries that supported Iran in the deadly war Iran-Iraq.
