The global economy ends 2025 demonstrating surprising resilience in the face of the uncertainties and instabilities caused by Donald Trump’s protectionist policies. Even with tariff shocks and geopolitical tensions, global growth remained close to that recorded in 2024, although uncertainty has become a structural factor in the economic cycle. Node WWChristopher Garman, executive director of Eurasia Group, and Marcello Estevão, chief economist at IFF (Institute of International Finance), debate the subject.
“After the April tariff, we expected the American economy to slow down due to the shock and uncertainty, but that didn’t happen. This was a surprise”, highlights Estevão. The United States, which implemented the highest tariff level since 1935 (around 16.8%), managed to maintain growth of approximately .
This performance was mainly driven by household consumption and investments in artificial intelligence made by large companies in the country. American fiscal policy, however, faced more than 40 days without finding a definitive solution.
“However, even in this global context, with protectionist measures from the USA, we had a weakening of the dollar“, explains Garman. “And a weaker dollar strengthens other currencies, such as the Brazilian real, which helps control inflation in emerging countries.”
Global adaptation to American policies
China managed to partially circumvent American trade attacks, achieving a trade surplus. President Xi Jinping adopted strategies to offset weak domestic demand with exports, which helped the country maintain growth close to 5% in 2025, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations.
A Europe also surprised positivelywith peripheral economies such as Spain, Greece and Italy performing better than central economies. Germany signaled improvement for 2026 due to the anticipated fiscal boost, while France continues to face debt problems and political instability.
Outlook for 2026
For 2026, Marcello Estevão details that the Institute of International Finance projects global growth similar to that of 2025, with the world economy continuing to adapt to what they call the “new normal”: higher interest rates, chronic public debts and rapid technological changes. A represents both an opportunity and a risk.
On the positive side, it can generate productivity gains that reduce inflation. “There is room for a gradual reduction in monetary policy and for a more favorable financial environmentincluding for emerging economies”, assesses the economist. “On the other hand, the market may have incorporated very optimistic expectations very quickly.”
In the American political scenario, Christopher Garman predicts that Trump will face challenges with the issue of the cost of living, aggravated by the accumulated effect of tariffs and the intensification of taxes, which could reach 600 thousand in 2026. This situation, combined with the drop in approval ratings, puts the president in a more fragile position for the November legislative elections, with the probability of losing at least one of the houses of Congress.
The executive director of Eurasia Group also warns that the US president should be careful in the positions he has taken in relation to the American central bank. “If you have a very hard attack or indicate one, it helps to reduce interest rates in the short term but exacerbates these inflationary pressures”, explains Garman. “This increases interest rates around the world. It could be a shot in the foot in this second term.”
