At least 33 senators must seek re-election in October 2026, when 54 seats, two thirds of the total of 81, will be up for grabs.
Among the other senators at the end of their term, 12 say their future is undefined, 6 say they will not run in the next elections, one will try to become a state deputy, one seeks to be governor and one, president of the Republic — the senator (PL-RJ).
The dispute for seats in the Senate, and, consequently, for control of the House, has gained importance in recent years because of the Bolsonarist plan of the (Supreme Federal Court).
The court imposed important defeats on this political group in recent years, such as that of (PL) and several allies of the former president in the
Bolsonarism, however, could be promoted if it elects a sufficient number of senators next year — the Senate is the House that has the power to dismiss members of the . The group’s main target in court is , which led to Bolsonaro’s conviction.
The House also has ten pre-candidates for governor, and at least four members who indicate that they are close to retiring from electoral disputes. The numbers are from a survey carried out by Sheet.
In addition, movements of members of the Senate to run for minor positions were detected. Of the 81 senators, 22 say they will not be candidates in 2026, 13 say they are still undefined and from the Republic.
One of those who does not intend to run for office in the next election is the president of the Senate, (-AP). He has a term as senator until 2031.
The majority, 9 of the 10 who intend to run for state governments, are in the middle of their term. Terms in the Senate are 8 years, which encourages riskier candidacies: the senator who loses an election to the Executive in this situation has four more years in the House regardless of the result.
The only one of these pre-candidates for governor who is at the end of his term as senator is (Novo-CE).
In addition to these 10 who are pre-candidates for state governments, three others stated that they could be candidates for governor, but have not yet ruled out the possibility of running for re-election in the Legislature. Izalci Lucas (PL-DF), Jayme Campos (União Brasil-MT) and Marcos Rogério (PL-RO) gave this answer.
Of the 16 senators who said they will not be candidates, 6 are at the end of their term. If they maintained these plans, they will be without a position from 2027 onwards.
Senator Daniella Ribeiro (PP-PB), for example, decided not to seek re-election to support the likely candidacy of her son, vice-governor Lucas Ribeiro (PP), for the government of Paraíba.
José Lacerda (PSD-MT) serves in the Senate as a substitute for minister Carlos Fávaro. Lacerda will not run in the election to support Fávaro, who is seeking to be elected as senator again.
The other four who are at the end of their terms and who say they do not intend to run in the next election have indicated that they should retire from electoral races. The group is composed of:
-
Cid Gomes (-CE), 62 years old, elected senator once;
-
Jader Barbalho (MDB-PA), 81 years old, elected senator three times;
-
Oriovisto Guimarães (PSDB-PR), 80 years old, elected senator once;
-
Paulo Paim (-RS), 75 years old, elected senator three times.
The retirement list could grow. Confúcio Moura (MDB-RO) has not yet decided his future, and one of the scenarios he has considered is to retire from public life. (PSB-GO) is considering returning to work on television programs.
Two of the current Senate members plan to run for lesser positions than the one they currently hold. Mara Gabrilli (PSD-SP) is a pre-candidate for state deputy. Augusta Brito (PT-CE), the minister’s deputy, wants to run for a seat on the .
The survey that gave rise to this report was carried out by Sheet based on official information from each senator. The sources are the press offices of each office, the senators themselves or public statements made by them. The data collected refers to those who were in office until December 12th.
