The president of the United States, Donald Trump, surprised the international community on Saturday (3), not only with the operation to capture the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, but with unprecedented statements about “managing” the South American country. The assessment is by Maurício Santoro, PhD in Political Science from Iuperj and collaborator at the Center for Political-Strategic Studies of the Brazilian Navy, in an interview with InfoMoney.
“Trump’s statement this afternoon was a political earthquake because it was different from what he had been saying in recent months,” explains Santoro. According to him, it was the first time that the United States mentioned the possibility of “managing” Venezuela and having a presence in the local oil industry.
He highlights that the US presence would be challenging, especially considering the country’s economic crisis and fragile infrastructure. Therefore, Trump’s statement about “managing” Venezuela was met with surprise.
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“Occupying a country of this size is not trivial,” says Santoro. The professor highlights the territorial dimensions of Venezuela and the particularities of its population as factors that make an eventual occupation extremely complex.
Trump’s criticism of Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner Corina Machado was also unprecedented.
The American president stated that, despite considering her a good person, Corina does not have support or respect within the country, which would make her unsuitable to govern Venezuela.
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“Most of us imagined that there would be some type of negotiation for the opposition to take power,” says Santoro.
In this context, the professor points out that the winner of the 2024 elections, Edmundo González, a direct ally of Machado, would be the most likely name to lead the country. “Macron’s reaction was very interesting, because he celebrated Maduro’s fall, but quickly mentioned Ambassador Edmundo,” says Santoro.
Although he considers it possible that the American government will change its position, given Trump’s history of volatile statements, Santoro recalls that the United States has already adopted similar strategies in the past, such as in Germany and Japan after the Second World War, in addition to interventions in Central America at the beginning of the 20th century.
Puzzle for Brazil
Santoro highlights that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s first demonstration was technical and institutional. “The Brazilian government’s score was very good, as it focused on the principles of international law”, he says.
The strategy of not directly mentioning Nicolás Maduro, leader of Venezuela, nor Donald Trump, indicates that the Brazilian government sought to treat the situation as a broader issue, beyond personalism. “The idea is to show what principles Brazil defends”, says Santoro.
Still, the professor believes that President Lula will face a political puzzle as long as the situation persists. “There has been a deterioration in the relationship between Lula and Maduro for some years, especially after the elections and the repression against the opposition,” he says.
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He recalls that the actions of the Maduro regime in recent years have generated distancing from some members of the Brazilian government. However, the Workers’ Party (PT) continues to support Maduro and the Bolivarian regime, as demonstrated in the official statement released by the party.
