The result of the October elections points to a favorable scenario for parties from the center to the right in Rio Grande do Sul for the 2026 election. The three parties with the most victories are in the governor’s base (), but disputes for protagonism could harm his plan for succession at Piratini Palace.
Furthermore, the polarization between Bolsonarism and Bolsonarism could abort the Tucano’s plan to launch the Gaucho governor as a third-way candidate for the Presidency of the Republic.
The was the party with the most city halls won, winning in 164 of the 497 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, followed by the , with 126. The PDT came in third, with 50 city halls, and the fourth, with 37.
The PSDB, which grew in the state, occupied fifth place, with 35 city halls, including. The party’s national president, Marconi Perillo, in 2026. However, the party faces one, which forces it to debate its future and possible merger.
Leite and other tucana leaders have already recognized that the PSDB may again not launch its own candidacy for the Planalto, if there is no viability for a centrist alternative.
Among the options for the governor is a candidacy for one of the two Senate seats, especially with the announced retirement of Paulo Paim (PT). Senator Luiz Carlos Heinze (PP), diagnosed with Parkinson’s, has not yet decided whether he will seek re-election.
Another alternative discussed is not to run for other positions. In this case, he will need to decide by March 2026 whether to resign to pass the position on to his preferred successor.
Interested in keeping the party at the center, Souza is one of the main organizers of the Leite government and coordinated the crisis committee during the May floods.
However, the division of the MDB in Rio Grande do Sul may weigh heavily. The vice-governor faces resistance from conservative sectors of the party and disaffection that resulted in support for Leite.
A possible alternative name in the MDB is that of the re-elected mayor of Porto Alegre, Sebastião Melo, who led an alliance from the center to the radical right, overcame wear and tear after the floods in the capital in May and defeated federal deputy Maria do Rosário (PT) by 62 % to 38% in the second round.
Despite this, Melo signaled that he intends to serve his term at city hall until the end. An indication of permanence was the choice of a deputy new to politics, Lieutenant Colonel Betina Worm (PL), who left active duty in the Army to run.
She is the political goddaughter of the federal deputy, the former president’s (PL) main political interlocutor in RS. At the end of November, Zucco released a video with the former president and stated that the decision about his political future in 2026 would be up to him. “You’re the one in charge,” he said.
If Bolsonaro nominates him to try for the Senate, the PL may choose to launch the former minister back into government, still worn out after the defeat to Leite in 2022, but interested in trying again in 2026.
If Zucco runs for the Executive, the candidate for the Senate could be federal deputy Giovani Cherini, who presides over the PL in the state and had his name proposed for the position last year by the party’s national president, Valdemar Costa Neto.
The definition of the PL, however, will depend on the alliances made with other right-wing acronyms, mainly the PP, which has consolidated its strength in the rural interior and seeks to regain the government, which it has not occupied since the 1980s, when it was still called PDS.
The state president, federal deputy Covatti Filho, told elected mayors and councilors in November that the party is prepared to launch its own candidate. As the PP is part of Leite’s base, support for Souza is also not ruled out.
An agreement would involve , the senator’s party, which won 16 city halls, and União Brasil, which won 21. The PSD grew from 5 to 11 cities, but did not achieve the same national projection that placed the party as leader in the number of city halls across the country. .
In the case of the PT, the defeat in Porto Alegre exposed the difficulties of the party, which already dominated politics in the capital of Rio Grande do Sul. Still, despite the drop in the number of city halls, from 23 to 19, the PT members had growth in the population governed.
The electoral conquest of the four largest cities in the south of Rio Grande do Sul — Pelotas, Rio Grande, Bagé and São Lourenço do Sul — strengthens his dominance in a group of municipalities where he won in 2022.
The PT’s priority will be to maintain the seat in the Senate that currently belongs to Paulo Paim. Ending his third term, he is one of the few names on the left in Rio Grande do Sul that has votes across different political spectrums.
One of the names for the mission would be , minister of Secom (Secretariat of Social Communication) and licensed federal deputy.
Pimenta gained political visibility as minister of the extraordinary reconstruction support secretariat, coordinating federal actions in the state after the rain tragedy. On the other hand, he is under threat of dismissal after being the target of public criticism from Lula for alleged problems in government communication.
A candidacy for Pimenta for the government was even mooted, but the party tends to re-launch the name of Edegar Pretto, current president of Conab (National Supply Company).
The wear and tear faced this year after suspected irregularities could harm you.
The PT wants to expand conversations with center parties to regain space, but the poor left-wing voting in the state is likely to make agreements difficult.
An alliance with the PDT, which has not yet defined plans for 2026, is unlikely. In Porto Alegre, Leite supported former Pedestrian deputy Juliana Brizola, who came in third place, for mayor. The expectation is that the support will be reciprocated in two years.
X-ray | Rio Grande do Sul
- Estimated population (2024): 11.229.915
- Voters (2024): 8.682.742
- Territorial area: 281,7 mil km²
- PIB per capita (2021): R$ 50,7 mil
- State budget (2024): R$83.8 billion
- Investment budget (2024): R$ 1.981 billion
Governor
Eduardo Leite (PSDB)
Senators
Luis Carlos Heinze (PP) – 2019-2027
Paulo Paim (PT) – 2019-2027
Hamilton Mourão (Republicans) – 2023-2031
Number of city halls by elected parties in 2024
- PP: 164
- MDB: 126
- PDT: 50
- PL: 37
- PSDB: 35
Voting by party for mayor in 2024 (1st round)
- PP: 842.211
- MDB: 517.048
- PSDB: 344.721
- PL: 325.630
- PDT: 223.873
