After the US operation in Venezuela, which culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the country’s leader, on Saturday (3), many spotlights turned to neighboring Colombia. Along with Maduro, Colombian president Gustavo Petro presents himself as an antagonist of Donald Trump, president of the United States, and has been the target of threats from the North American in recent days.
In an analysis published this Monday (5), XP considers that the episode reshapes the environment in which the legislative campaigns, scheduled for March 8, and the presidential campaign, on May 31, in Colombia will be carried out, although the long-term political impact is still uncertain.
Public opinion
Andrés Pardo, chief strategist for Latin America at XP, and Sol Azcune, political analyst at XP, highlight that there is a greater possibility of hardening existing positions than of reallocating votes. Still, the possibility of direct US intervention in the country is seen as unlikely.
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“President Trump’s role is far from being uniformly perceived in Colombia. Although there are still no polls following the US attack, a November 2025 Invamer poll shows that the US president’s image remains more negative than positive among the electorate, reflecting persistent skepticism towards US unilateralism,” the report states.
This news is especially good for Petro, according to the analysis, because the dynamics have been cited as one of the factors that most supported the recovery of the president’s approval at the end of 2025. Monitoring public opinion has become more complicated, as analysts explain, after a change in regulations that prohibits the release of research until the end of October 2026.
The current president will not be on the ballot, but he should be one of the main names on the left in the election, analysts say, and his candidate, Iván Cepeda, remains the favorite in the elections.
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“On the right, reactions have been more subtle than initial headlines suggest. Maduro’s removal — given his largely authoritarian perception — has generated a short-term emotional response that appears to favor security-focused rhetoric,” the report says.
Defining theme
Analysts reinforce that the effect on Colombia goes beyond political influence or changes in public opinion. As a neighbor of Venezuela, Colombia faces migratory pressures on the border, which are combined with the presence of armed groups and illegal networks along the territorial limit. This makes the crisis a defining theme for the country’s elections.
“The events along the Colombia–Venezuela border will serve as an initial test to assess whether external shocks translate into concrete pressures on internal security,” say XP analysts.
