The three PSD names seeking to make a presidential candidacy viable — the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, now joins Ratinho Jr., from Paraná, and Eduardo Leite, from Rio Grande do Sul, among the party’s options — will have the challenge of attracting strategic segments to the election that in the past supported former president Jair Bolsonaro and today show a preference for Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) in the race. Whether in the financial market, industry or agribusiness, the name of the governor of São Paulo continues to be seen as the one with the greatest potential to face President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after recent movements on the right.
Tarcísio has repeated that he will run for re-election, which has reinforced the pre-candidacy of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as the main name in the field. Behind the scenes, Faria Lima’s brokers and banks, however, assess that the rejection of the senator is very high, which favors Lula and there is still a “thread of hope” that Tarcísio could run for President, which would depend on Bolsonaro’s approval. The governor should meet today with the former president, who is imprisoned in Papudinha, convicted of plotting a coup d’état (read more below).
“Caiado’s entry into the dispute doesn’t change the scenario much because it was already predicted. He has always been a name on the table and for those looking for options, little changes. He (Caiado) has his stronghold, but he still doesn’t appear in the polls. Now, Tarcísio’s entry would make that change”, says Daniel Teles, partner at Valor Investimentos.
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Competitiveness
For the expert, Tarcísio’s absence in the presidential race reinforces Lula’s chances of winning, as the governor was the financial market’s strongest bet to face him on an “equal to equal” basis. Teles notes that Tarcísio has said that “he has a lot to talk about with Bolsonaro”, although he reinforces that his objective is re-election in São Paulo.
Chief strategist at MZM Wealth, specialized in financial planning and wealth management, Paulo Bittencourt assesses that Caiado is a politician with regional scope, who can be well evaluated in the Central-West or among the right-wing in the Southeast, but who would not have support in Minas Gerais, a decisive state for the election. Furthermore, in the market’s view, Caiado does not bring a discourse of modernity or political renewal. In this sense, says Bittencourt, Ratinho Jr. would be more competitive.
“The financial market still wants Tarcísio to be the right-wing candidate. But it is increasingly clear that the governor of São Paulo will not enter this race, as the Bolsonaro family considers that they need to defend the former president’s legacy by nominating Flávio”, says the strategist.
At the end of last year, an industry businessman privately recalls, Caiado highlighted at an event aimed at entrepreneurs, in Espírito Santo, that the pillars of his government in Goiás are fiscal responsibility and a focus on public security. At the time, Caiado stated that these would be his main flags in a possible candidacy.
The fiscal issue is essential for the financial market to support a candidate, but the industry is also betting on reducing the public deficit as a tool to reduce interest rates, currently at 15%, a level that is an obstacle to new investments, as loans become more expensive. Representatives of the sector see the continuation of a PT government as maintaining the imbalance in public accounts — which could delay the fall in interest rates — and reinforce that Tarcísio would still be the best name on the right to face Lula.
Historic proximity
In agribusiness, Caiado’s name is highly regarded, since the governor of Goiás has historical connections with the sector: his family has always been linked to livestock farming. Caiado was also one of the important figures of the ruralist group and always condemned the invasions of private properties by landless movements.
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If he is indeed a candidate, Caiado should gain important support from producers in the first round. An obstacle would be having Tarcísio as a competitor, since he also has a good rating in the sector. Still, producers contacted by GLOBO prefer to wait for a better consolidation of the political scenario before taking a position.
The president of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (Faesp), Tirso Meirelles, says that the entity is following this year’s presidential campaign with interest and is open to promoting dialogue between the candidates and the state’s rural leaders about proposals for the sector and the country.
“We will listen to them at the Federation. The first guest is pre-candidate Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy). We are waiting for appointments with Flávio Bolsonaro, Ratinho Jr., Eduardo Leite and Ronaldo Caiado, as well as any other candidates who wish to visit us”, he said.
