Volkanovski x Diego Lopes: analysis and who is the favorite at UFC 325 - News Room USA

O UFC 325which will be held this Saturday (31/01) at the Qudos Bank Arena, in Sydney, Australia, pits much more than two elite featherweight athletes face to face. The rematch between the Australian Alexander Volkanovski and the Brazilian Diego Lopesworth the category belt, brings together elements of legacy, ascension, tactical adjustments and emotional pressure.

Volkanovski x Diego Lopes: how the fighters arrive

Alexander Volkanovski arrives at UFC 325 as one of the biggest names in featherweight history. Champion between 2019 and 2024, the Australian regained the belt by beating Diego Lopes at UFC 314, in April 2025, starting his second reign in the division. According to data from the UFC’s official website, Volkanovski has the second record for victories in featherweight title fights (7) and also the second in number of defenses (5), behind only José Aldo.

The victory over Lopes also put Volkanovski on a historic level: he became the first athlete to win a belt in lightweight categories (flyweight, featherweight and lightweight) after the age of 35. At 37, however, each presentation begins to be analyzed not only by the result, but by the impact on his legacy.

Fighting at home, in front of the Australian fans, is a clear advantage – something highlighted in analyzes on the websites “UFC.com.br” and “Sporty Trader” –, but it also represents a symbolic risk. A defeat in Sydney would carry significant weight for a champion whose career has always been marked by dominance, control and strategic intelligence.

On the other side is Diego Lopes, 31 years old, one of the names that has grown the most within Ultimate in the last two years. After debuting with a defeat to Movsar Evloev, in a fight accepted with just a few days of preparation, the man from Manaus won five consecutive victories, three of them by knockout. His most impactful performance was against Brian Ortega, a former title challenger, a result that practically sealed his path to a title fight.

The defeat to Volkanovski at UFC 314 didn’t phase the Brazilian. On the contrary: about five months later, at Noche UFC, Diego knocked out Jean Silva, in a dominant performance that earned Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night bonuses.

Today, Lopes occupies second place in the featherweight rankings, with a record of 27 wins and seven losses, with only two losses in the UFC. He returns to the octagon with more experience, more preparation time and the knowledge that he will have another 25 minutes to try to correct the mistakes of the first clash.

Volkanovski x Diego Lopes: fighters’ style

In the first fight, Volkanovski used exactly what he has built throughout his career: reading the game, controlling rhythm, volume of strikes and superior cardio. As highlighted in an analysis by the “Play Maker Brasil” website, one of Diego Lopes’ main problems in that fight was the number of significant blows absorbed under the champion’s constant pressure.

For the rematch, the scenario requires clear changes on the Brazilian side. Lopes needs to take the center of the octagon, vary his entries more, use his jiu-jitsu more offensively and prevent Volkanovski from dictating the pace from the start. Moving forward, but without exposing yourself too much, will be the most difficult balance to find.

Volkanovski, on the other hand, tends to repeat the strategy that made him famous: lateral movement, quick combinations, distance control and perfect round management. His cardio continues to be an important differentiator, something highlighted by Sporty Trader, which points to the Australian as the favorite, even in a more balanced match than the first.

Volkanovski x Diego Lopes: who is the favorite?

Bookmakers place Volkanovski as the favorite, with odds around 1.72, according to an analysis by “Sporty Trader”, supported by factors such as history, victory in the first duel, experience in long fights and the home factor. Still, favoritism is treated as tight, recognizing the aggressiveness and constant danger that Diego Lopes represents.

The “Lance!” reinforces that UFC 325 was designed to enhance the Australian market, but without ignoring the global impact of the card. In addition to the main fight, the event features two other Brazilians (Maurício Ruffy and Tallison Teixeira) in strategic positions, which increases the weight of the event for the Brazilian public.

More than the belt, Volkanovski x Diego Lopes 2 defines directions. For the champion, it is the chance to prove that age does not limit his excellence and that a new reign is possible. For the challenger, it is the opportunity to completely change the hierarchy of the division, put Brazil back at the top of the featherweight division and transform a meteoric trajectory into definitive consecration.

WORTH THE BELT! 🏆@AlexVolkanovski e @DiegoLopesMMA they measure strength at the top of the featherweight division! 💥

Who will take the title?

[ Apresentado por @Stake | Sábado (31) | 19h | Assista ao vivo no @ParamountPlusBR ] pic.twitter.com/8iunPAskAT

— UFC Brasil (@UFCBrasil) January 30, 2026

Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes: where to watch UFC 325

UFC 325 will be broadcast live and exclusively on Paramount+. The preliminary card starts at 7pm (Brasília time) and the main card starts at 11pm (also Brasília time).

The streaming service offers 7 day free trial for new subscribers, allowing you to follow the entire event live, in addition to accessing the platform’s complete catalogue, which includes films, series, original productions and sports content.

After the trial period, the subscription automatically renews for the amount of R$27.90 per monthwith the possibility of canceling at any time, without additional charges during the promotional period.

To watch UFC 325 live, simply click here and activate the free trial. It is an opportunity to follow the event with no initial subscription cost.

Volkanovski x Diego Lopes: UFC 325 fights

Card Principal

From 23:00 (Brasília time)

Featherweight (belt): Alexander Volkanovski x Diego Lopes (last fight of the night)
Peso leve: Dan Hooker x Benoit Saint-Denis
Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev x Mauricio Ruffy
Peso pesado: Tiivasa x Tallison Teixeira
Light Weight: Quillan Salkilld x Jamie Mullarkey