No one doubts that the world is changing at an accelerated speed and a new world order is being created that not even the least “conspiracy-minded” deny. The chips are already placed, with Europe as a pawn that would like to be the biggest piece, Russia as the “second step” and USA and China playing face to face. as Mario Draghi It is also clear: “The world order is dead”or rather, the old rules-based world order.
There is the key: the old rules . This is how clear and forceful Draghi was during a speech given at the University of Leuven (Belgium), where he was awarded a doctorate. for the sake of honor. , and which has been echoed by the Italian media.
For the former Italian Prime Minister and former President of the European Central Bankthe multilateral system led by the US since the end of World War II no longer works. And Europe, he warns, faces a real risk: “become subordinated, divided and deindustrialized”.
From the beginning of his speech, Draghi focused on a change of era. He acknowledged that it is difficult to accept that this international order is “dead,” but he insisted that The facts force us to assume it as it is, without nostalgia or self-deception..
The architecture of the European Union, he recalled, was built on the conviction that international law and strong institutions guaranteed peace and prosperity. And, above all, on a key premise: the military protection of the United States. All that is over.
The end of the American umbrella and the new clash of interests
For decades, the alliance allowed Europe to focus on economic openness. With security guaranteed and trade flowing within the Western bloc, growth seemed assured. But that balance has been broken.
According to Draghi, the US is beginning to see the maintenance of international order more as a cost than a benefitand does not hesitate to impose tariffs on Europe, put pressure on trade matters or even consider that European political fragmentation works in its favor. In geopolitics there really are no allies or enemies, there are always interests.
China is added to that factor. Draghi was explicit in pointing out that Beijing controls critical nodes of global supply chains and transfers the cost of its internal imbalances to the rest of the world.
The result is international trade that is increasingly distant from the classic principle of comparative advantage and closer to mercantilist strategies, where some gain at the expense of the deindustrialization of others.
This process, he added, has fueled inequality and has sown the political reaction that today shakes many Western democracies. Europe is no stranger to this dynamic.
The biggest risk: an irrelevant Europe
For Draghi, the collapse of the multilateral order is not, in itself, the greatest danger. Europe could adapt to a world with less trade and looser rules. The real threat is what can replace it. A scenario in which EU is trapped between the US and Chinawithout real decision-making capacity, if it is not already irremediably so.
The diagnosis is harsh: if Europe does not actively defend its interests, it will not be able to preserve its values for a long time. The loss of industrial weight, political division and strategic dependence would be the direct consequences.
From confederation to federation: the pending leap
In this context, Draghi launched one of his most ambitious ideas: Europe will only be a power if it moves towards a true federation. Where the EU has taken that step – trade, competition, the single market or monetary policy – it has achieved international respect and negotiating capacity. Recent trade agreements with India or Latin America are, in his opinion, clear proof.
The problem is that in key areas such as defence, foreign policy or taxation, Europe continues to function with a confederal logic. And that model, he warned, does not generate power. A group of veto-wielding states with distinct national calculations remains vulnerable, especially in the face of much more cohesive actors.
A “pragmatic federalism” as a roadmap
It has been the dream of many, after centuries of killing each other: a truly united Europe, but it seems impossible, even less so today, with countries increasingly closed in on themselves and skeptical, and a population disenchanted with European institutions, if not ignored.
But Draghi does not give up. The specific proposal goes through what it calls “pragmatic federalism.” This is not a forced or immediate integration, but rather move forward with partners willing to do so, in areas where possible. The objective, however, must be clear from the beginning: to build institutions with real decision-making capacity.
The euro is, for Draghi, the best example. A group of countries decided to move forward, creating common institutions with effective authority and, over time, others joined in. It was not a linear or cost-free path, but it worked.
