() completes six months in prison, this Wednesday (4), trying to return to the beginning: house arrest, lost after the former president last November.
The decision is up to the minister of the (Federal Supreme Court), who determined, in a condominium in , for having appeared in videos shown by allies at a demonstration the day before, when the former president was already banned from using social media.
For allies of the former president who are following the process, there is no way Moraes can postpone Bolsonaro’s transfer to his home for much longer, given his age (70 years old) and his health conditions, with dizziness, hiccups and recent surgeries. A wing of Supreme Court ministers, previously refractory to this argument, began to agree with him, which increased optimism among Bolsonarists.
According to them, the minister has to follow the STF jurisprudence and guarantee the right to house arrest in these cases. This has not yet happened, according to Bolsonaro’s interlocutors, because of the tension between Bolsonaroism and the Supreme Court, which ends up generating retaliation against the former president. Right-wing deputies speak of injustice, persecution and the restriction of defense in the process.
The offensive for house arrest has several fronts, in addition to the formal request from the defense in the process in which Bolsonaro was sentenced by the STF, last September, to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attempted coup d’état.
The main bet of Bolsonaro supporters is a medical report requested by Moraes that should be presented this week to indicate whether Bolsonaro is able to continue serving his sentence at Papudinha, a Military Police battalion next to the Papuda Penitentiary Complex. Doctors evaluated the former president on the 20th.
Another path is for Congress to overturn the president’s (PT) veto on the Dosimetry PL, and, consequently, facilitate the progression of the regime. Despite pressure from Bolsonaro deputies, there is still no expectation that the president of , (-AP), will schedule the session to analyze the vetoes.
The hope of house arrest also comes after a successful articulation between the former first lady (PL) and the governor of , (Republicans), together with STF ministers to raise awareness about Bolsonaro’s situation.
Bolsonaro’s transfer from the Federal Police Superintendency to Papudinha, on the 15th, led to the reading around (PL-RJ) that Michelle and Tarcísio were trying to secure themselves to run for President in the senator’s place, who was appointed by his father. The , while the PF had 12 m².
It was during this period away from street militancy and politicians in his field that Bolsonaro, ineligible by decision of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) since 2023, consolidated the nomination of Flávio as his political successor in this year’s presidential elections, contradicting the fans of the center and the financial market for Tarcísio.
The president’s allies claim that his arrest, the deterioration of his health and the difficulty of obtaining house arrest influenced the decision to opt for someone from the Bolsonaro clan, in an attempt to maintain the family’s political relevance and electoral assets.
The calculation is that it is better to have their name on a presidential candidacy than to run the risk of seeing the group lose political prominence and accept the leadership of an outsider.
In one way or another, members of the PL consulted by the report state that the fact that Bolsonaro has limited visits and, therefore, is not fully included in political articulations brings harm to the group’s electoral organization. Furthermore, Bolsonarism will not be able to count on its capacity for popular mobilization during the electoral period.
A former Bolsonaro aide claims, on the other hand, that the former president’s victimization could even have a positive electoral effect and, therefore, some opponents on the left also defend house arrest and fear for his health.
The leader of the opposition in the Chamber, Cabo Gilberto Silva (PL-PB), follows the same line. “Every day that former president Bolsonaro remains in that prison in an illegal and inhumane way, he becomes stronger in the eyes of public opinion,” he tells Sheetadding that he “could die at any moment.”
While supporting house arrest, Bolsonaro’s interlocutors are less optimistic about a change in the political climate that favors the former president, similar to what happened with Lula, who was released in 2019 after 580 days in prison.
Although they point out that anything can happen in Brazil, the assessment is that other solutions may take time or have no impact – such as a majority of right-wing senators in 2027 to enable the impeachment of STF ministers or the downfall of Moraes through the implications of the Banco Master case.
“I don’t see an immediate solution, because we are living in the toga dictatorship, a very big plot”, says deputy Delegado Caveira (PL-PA). “For me the only blow is the injustice against Bolsonaro, who is sorely missed, including in political articulations.”
Regarding Bolsonaro’s health, even though he is in prison, his visitors at Papudinha claim that he has been feeling dizzy because of the medicine to contain hiccups. Furthermore, he appears to be emotionally shaken without being able to maintain spontaneous contact with his mass of supporters.
“I found former president Bolsonaro’s health to be very poor. He is taking a very strong medicine to help with the hiccups, but it makes him very dizzy, with a real risk of falling. The hiccups affect his appetite too. All of this has made him very fragile,” he told Sheet bishop, who visited the former president.
It includes walks, visits from family and lawyers, daily medical care, physiotherapy, occasional religious help and no books read – reading could reduce your sentence.
The activities are contained in a report sent to Moraes by the Military Police of the Federal District. The PM monitored the former president’s routine from January 15th to 27th.
