Ukraine has assumed an uncomfortable but increasingly widespread idea in kyiv: in a future peace agreement, no one will guarantee her safety better than herself. Neither NATO, nor the United States, nor even multilateral promises today seem sufficient insurance against a Kremlin that has already demonstrated its willingness to attack again when it suits it. Given this scenario, the country is preparing to become a “steel porcupine”: a State armed to the teeth, too expensive for Russia to bite.
The expression is not new. Last year, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen encouraged Ukraine to transform itself into a modern fortress“indigestible for present and future aggressors.” That concept has since become a strategic roadmap: deterring Moscow not with words, but with real capabilities.
The army as a true guarantee
For decades, security guarantees were understood as external commitments: treaties, allies, military umbrellas. Today, that logic has changed. “The core of any guarantee must be the Ukrainian army itself and its defense industry”, summarizes Alyona Getmanchuk, Ukraine’s representative to NATO. Experience weighs: in 1994, kyiv gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for promises from the United States and the United Kingdom that never materialized when Russia attacked.
Distrust has intensified with Donald Trump back in the White House. The American president has ruled out Ukraine’s accession to NATO and has demonstrated a volatile foreign policy, capable of going from isolation to cordiality with Vladimir Putin in a matter of weeks. In kyiv, few believe that Washington would go to war over Ukraine or would seriously punish Moscow if it broke a ceasefire.
A state armed to the teeth
The “steel porcupine” plan involves build a permanent military capacity, expensive and difficult to neutralize. It is not an improvised war force, but rather a sustainable system over time.
Among the priorities managed by the Ukrainian Government are:
- Maintain an army of up to 800,000 troops even after an eventual ceasefire
- Reform the military recruitment, training and career system, currently stressed by war and evasion of service
- Modernize equipment with tanks, artillery and combat aviation, including the possible purchase of up to 150 Swedish Gripen fighters
- Guarantee competitive salaries and professional structures to avoid mass desertions in peacetime
The challenge is not minor. Millions of Ukrainians have tried to avoid conscription and hundreds of thousands of soldiers They have been absent without permission. If the conflict freezes, many will want to return to civilian life. Maintaining a huge, well-trained force will require deep reforms and billions of euros annually.
Drones, missiles and production under pressure
If there is a field where Ukraine has made a strategic leap It is that of unmanned warfare. kyiv maintains that most of the current Russian casualties are due to Ukrainian drones. The bet is clear: cheap, massive and lethal technology.
Only in 2025, the Ministry of Defense signed contracts for 4.5 million FPV drones, tripling spending compared to the previous year. Added to this are electronic warfare systems, smart munitions and long-range drones capable of striking inside Russia.
But the real Achilles heel is industrial. Ukraine can produce weapons worth about 35 billion dollars a year, although it only manages to finance a third of it. Without stable contracts, predictable financing and protected factories, mass production is fragile. Today, up to 60% of industrial capacity remains underutilized.
Europe as a backup, not a substitute
The European Union is beginning to play a key role. Programs like SAFE, with 150,000 million in loans for defenseand a future credit of 90,000 million for Ukraine – largely destined for weapons – open a way of oxygen. Legally binding security agreements and the possible presence of European troops following a peace agreement are also discussed.
But in kyiv no one is fooled: all of this is a complement, not a substitute. The lesson learned is clear. If Russia attacks again, Ukraine wants to be prepared to respond alone, quickly and with force enough to make Moscow think twice.
Become a “steel porcupine” is not a rhetorical metaphor. It is a survival strategy. With a neighbor like Russia, deterrence is no longer negotiated: it is manufactured.
