Corn ethanol is consolidated as one of the fastest growing segments within the biofuel matrix in Brazil. According to the president of Unem (National Corn Ethanol Union), Guilherme Nolasco, the country should end the current harvest year with 10 billion liters producedvolume that represents about a third of the entire national ethanol market.
“Growth was very fast. In the last eight years, corn ethanol has advanced at rates above 30% per year”, said Nolasco in an exclusive interview with CNN Agro. For the next harvest, which begins in April, preliminary projections point to growth of growth of around 20%which can take production to something close to 12 billion liters.
With the rapid expansion of supply, the sector has been striving to create new consumer markets. UNEM’s projection indicates that in the 2026/2027 harvest national ethanol production could exceed 4 billion liters, of which 2 billion will come from corn and another 2 billion from sugar cane. With this, the country will add between 10% and 12% offer to the market in a single cycle.
“Projected consumption grows by around 2%, while supply could grow by more than 10%. This requires responsibility from the sector”, says Nolasco. According to him, there are three main ways to absorb this additional volume: expanding domestic consumption in regions where ethanol is still little used, replacing gasoline in already consolidated markets and developing new applications in the international market.
Consumer states
Today, hydrated ethanol is consumed significantly in just six statesall producers: São Paulo, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Paraná and Minas Gerais. In other regions, such as the South, North and Northeast, consumption is hampered by high prices. “Where there is no supply, the price is close to that of gasoline and the consumer does not form a consumption habit,” he stated.
In this context, corn biorefineries can contribute to the dispersion of consumption. This year alone, 8 new plants should be opened in different regions of Brazil.
Investments are mainly concentrated in the Center-West, but are also moving towards the South and the region known as Matopiba, which encompasses areas in the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia. Hprojects in cities like Ferries (MA), Luiz Eduardo Magalhães (BA) and Uruçuí (PI).
In the south of the country, where three new units are to be installed, progress occurs with plants that use wheat and triticaleusing raw materials that are not of baking quality. “It’s not about using wheat that would be used for human consumption. It’s wheat that doesn’t have a noble destination and ends up being used industrially”, explained Nolasco.
national park
Currently, Brazil has 25 biorefineries in operationa number that should reach around 33 units by the end of 2026with new projects already under construction or in the final phase of implementation. “There are others 20 studies under analysis”, says the president of UNEM, which estimates that Brazil has the capacity to double corn ethanol production by about 2032reaching something close to 20 billion liters. However, the entity’s president emphasizes that investments depend directly on the creation of demand.
New applications
In addition to the domestic market, the sector is betting on medium and long-term applications, such as the use of ethanol in the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)no maritime transport and in exports to countries that increase the mixture of ethanol with gasoline.
“We may be too big for the current market in the short term, but still too small for global markets like shipping and aviation,” Nolasco highlighted. For him, the potential is significant: just a partial replacement of fossil fuels in global maritime transport would surpass all current Brazilian production. “We have enormous potential to grow, but this needs to be sustainable”, he concluded.
